Prime, Policy Research in Macroeconomics

A slightly edited version of this article first appeared in the Economic and Political Weekly on 22 July 2023.Summary: This article is the third and last in a series of articles on monetary policy debates in the age in which deglobalisation became a buzzword. Here, we continue our discussion of the ongoing Turkish monetary policy experiment by focusing on macroprudential measures, capital controls and central bank independence, as promised in the first article, as an example of these...

A slightly edited version of this article first appeared in the Economic and Political Weekly on 22 July 2023.Summary: This article is the third and last in a series of articles on monetary policy debates in the age in which deglobalisation became a buzzword. Here, we continue our discussion of the ongoing Turkish monetary policy experiment by focusing on macroprudential measures, capital controls and central bank independence, as promised in the first article, as an example of these...

And for the cataclysmic gap between theory, policy and ecosystem collapse. [This article was first published on Ann’s Substack site, System Change, on 21st August 2023] The Financial Times’s Lex column is legendary. The editor, Jonathan Guthrie, argues that it is “the oldest and arguably most influential column of its kind” having first appeared in 1945. Lex is written by a collective – there are no author bylines because that would be inaccurate, writes Guthrie. The name is “a riff on the...

And for the cataclysmic gap between theory, policy and ecosystem collapse.[This article was first published on Ann’s Substack site, System Change, on 21st August 2023]The Financial Times’s Lex column is legendary.The editor, Jonathan Guthrie, argues that it is “the oldest and arguably most influential column of its kind” having first appeared in 1945. Lex is written by a collective – there are no author bylines because that would be inaccurate, writes Guthrie. The name is “a riff on the Latin...

And for the cataclysmic gap between theory, policy and ecosystem collapse.[This article was first published on Ann’s Substack site, System Change, on 21st August 2023]The Financial Times’s Lex column is legendary.The editor, Jonathan Guthrie, argues that it is “the oldest and arguably most influential column of its kind” having first appeared in 1945. Lex is written by a collective – there are no author bylines because that would be inaccurate, writes Guthrie. The name is “a riff on the Latin...

May 2023. The UK economy struggles along, shedding another 0.1% of GDP. The ‘size’ of the economy, measured as GDP, is a fraction (0.7% to be precise) greater than in May 2019, 4 long years ago. It’s still smaller than in the second half of 2019. Even worse, average real pay (i.e. after allowing for CPI inflation) is a fraction lower than it was in 2019 – in May 209, £499, in May 2023, £497. But that average masks a great deal of variety, between those whose pay has kept up with inflation...

May 2023. The UK economy struggles along, shedding another 0.1% of GDP. The ‘size’ of the economy, measured as GDP, is a fraction (0.7% to be precise) greater than in May 2019, 4 long years ago. It’s still smaller than in the second half of 2019. Even worse, average real pay (i.e. after allowing for CPI inflation) is a fraction lower than it was in 2019 – in May 209, £499, in May 2023, £497. But that average masks a great deal of variety, between those whose pay has kept up with inflation...

May 2023. The UK economy struggles along, shedding another 0.1% of GDP. The ‘size’ of the economy, measured as GDP, is a fraction (0.7% to be precise) greater than in May 2019, 4 long years ago. It’s still smaller than in the second half of 2019. Even worse, average real pay (i.e. after allowing for CPI inflation) is a fraction lower than it was in 2019 – in May 209, £499, in May 2023, £497. But that average masks a great deal of variety, between those whose pay has kept up with inflation...

Day after day, day after day,We stuck, nor breath nor motion;As idle as a painted shipUpon a painted ocean. [The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, Samuel Taylor Coleridge] The UK economy remains stuck. Last Friday, the latest GDP numbers for the UK (first estimate for Q1 2023) from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicate that the UK economy is still a little shy of where it was back in late 2019, still down by 0.5% on Qs 3 and 4 of that year.  The economy in Q1 was just 0.2% larger than...

Day after day, day after day,We stuck, nor breath nor motion;As idle as a painted shipUpon a painted ocean.[The Rime of the Ancient Mariner, Samuel Taylor Coleridge]The UK economy remains stuck. Last Friday, the latest GDP numbers for the UK (first estimate for Q1 2023) from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) indicate that the UK economy is still a little shy of where it was back in late 2019, still down by 0.5% on Qs 3 and 4 of that year.  The economy in Q1 was just 0.2% larger than in...