by Empirical macroeconomics — a scientific illusion Theoretical particle physicists wait anxiously to see whether experimentalists will be able to identify the particles their theories postulate. The image of an economic theorist nervously awaiting the result of a decisive econometric test does not ring true. The negligible impact of formal econometric work on the development of economic science is manifest in a number of ways … In the natural sciences, investigators rush to check out the validity of claims made by rival laboratories and then to build on them. Such efforts are very rare in economics. I find it implausible that this is a consequence of the accuracy and robustness of the conclusions of econometric studies. Instead, the absence of replication attempts for most empirical work are a consequence of the fact that the results are rarely an important input to theory creation or the evolution of professional opinion more generally.
Topics:
Lars Pålsson Syll considers the following as important: Economics
This could be interesting, too:
Lars Pålsson Syll writes Daniel Waldenströms rappakalja om ojämlikheten
Peter Radford writes AJR, Nobel, and prompt engineering
Lars Pålsson Syll writes MMT explained
Lars Pålsson Syll writes Statens finanser funkar inte som du tror
Empirical macroeconomics — a scientific illusion
Theoretical particle physicists wait anxiously to see whether experimentalists will be able to identify the particles their theories postulate. The image of an economic theorist nervously awaiting the result of a decisive econometric test does not ring true. The negligible impact of formal econometric work on the development of economic science is manifest in a number of ways …
In the natural sciences, investigators rush to check out the validity of claims made by rival laboratories and then to build on them. Such efforts are very rare in economics. I find it implausible that this is a consequence of the accuracy and robustness of the conclusions of econometric studies. Instead, the absence of replication attempts for most empirical work are a consequence of the fact that the results are rarely an important input to theory creation or the evolution of professional opinion more generally.
