by Summary:
No, inflation is not getting harder to "understand." Central banks are just using models that don't fit the case, for example, confusing special case model with general models, or using models that are mis-specified. The message is to review the assumptions, including methodological ones, and revise them as appropriate. Then compare the model with the real world. What's so difficult to understand about that? This is what scientists do. Difficult, you say? That's what you are getting paid for. If you don't have the chops, then resign and do something you can handle. Maybe others have a better handle on it. Give them a shot.The TelegraphInflation is getting harder to understand, central banker warns Tim Wallace
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: central banking, DSGE modeling, econometric modeling, inflation forecasting
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No, inflation is not getting harder to "understand." Central banks are just using models that don't fit the case, for example, confusing special case model with general models, or using models that are mis-specified. The message is to review the assumptions, including methodological ones, and revise them as appropriate. Then compare the model with the real world. What's so difficult to understand about that? This is what scientists do. Difficult, you say? That's what you are getting paid for. If you don't have the chops, then resign and do something you can handle. Maybe others have a better handle on it. Give them a shot.The TelegraphInflation is getting harder to understand, central banker warns Tim Wallace
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: central banking, DSGE modeling, econometric modeling, inflation forecasting
This could be interesting, too:
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The message is to review the assumptions, including methodological ones, and revise them as appropriate. Then compare the model with the real world.
What's so difficult to understand about that? This is what scientists do.
Difficult, you say? That's what you are getting paid for. If you don't have the chops, then resign and do something you can handle.
Maybe others have a better handle on it. Give them a shot.
The Telegraph
Inflation is getting harder to understand, central banker warns
Tim Wallace