Summary:
I have been a "China is unlikely to keep its model going for more than another five years—a decade tops" perma-bear since 1988. All I understand is that I do not understand the Chinese economy. I wish I did understand it: Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman: R.I.P. Chinese Exceptionalism?: "Over the past few decades, China’s growth has appeared to violate certain fundamental laws of economics.... China’s debt keeps on rising.... For any normal country, the build-up of extensive surplus capacity would lead to sharp declines in investment and GDP growth. And that, in turn, would produce financial distress, followed by a crisis if the warning signs were ignored. But China has had a different experience... Ha ha ha. Maybe they aren't laws?Grasping RealityI have been a "China is unlikely to
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: Chinese economy, conventional economics
This could be interesting, too:
I have been a "China is unlikely to keep its model going for more than another five years—a decade tops" perma-bear since 1988. All I understand is that I do not understand the Chinese economy. I wish I did understand it: Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman: R.I.P. Chinese Exceptionalism?: "Over the past few decades, China’s growth has appeared to violate certain fundamental laws of economics.... China’s debt keeps on rising.... For any normal country, the build-up of extensive surplus capacity would lead to sharp declines in investment and GDP growth. And that, in turn, would produce financial distress, followed by a crisis if the warning signs were ignored. But China has had a different experience... Ha ha ha. Maybe they aren't laws?Grasping RealityI have been a "China is unlikely to
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important: Chinese economy, conventional economics
This could be interesting, too:
Mike Norman writes In the Face of Lockdown, China’s E-Commerce Giants Deliver — Chengyi Lin
Mike Norman writes TASS — China’s Hainan offers more than 30,000 jobs to foreign specialists
Mike Norman writes Sputnik — China’s GDP Growth to Decline to 2.3% in Baseline Scenario in 2020 – World Bank
Mike Norman writes Behind the Headlines from China — Martin Armstrong
I have been a "China is unlikely to keep its model going for more than another five years—a decade tops" perma-bear since 1988. All I understand is that I do not understand the Chinese economy. I wish I did understand it:
Arvind Subramanian and Josh Felman: R.I.P. Chinese Exceptionalism?: "Over the past few decades, China’s growth has appeared to violate certain fundamental laws of economics.... China’s debt keeps on rising.... For any normal country, the build-up of extensive surplus capacity would lead to sharp declines in investment and GDP growth. And that, in turn, would produce financial distress, followed by a crisis if the warning signs were ignored. But China has had a different experience...Ha ha ha. Maybe they aren't laws?
Grasping Reality
I have been a "China is unlikely to keep its model going for more than another five years—a decade tops" perma-bear since 1988
Brad DeLong | Professor of Economics, UCAL Berkeley