Sunday , November 24 2024

GDP Now

Summary:
This GDP projection from the Atlanta Fed has come way down for the 1Q from when it was first published.  IIRC they were a bit above 4% while we just reported a 2.3%.You can't end 4Q with a change in tax POLICY that forces a B (4%) markdown in capital at the depositories and still expect things to carry on iaw the 4Q growth trend sorry.That tax bill simply was not well thought out... I hope this short term effect of the change in policy effecting B of certain financial asset values is all that is damaging about it...We'll have to see how long it takes the depositories to recover from this; they seemed to have made progress towards recovery in 1Q and reported strong profit growth but effects may still linger here into the 2Q.RT movement_cap: atlanta fed gdp now 5.0% -> 2.0% in two

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This GDP projection from the Atlanta Fed has come way down for the 1Q from when it was first published.  IIRC they were a bit above 4% while we just reported a 2.3%.

You can't end 4Q with a change in tax POLICY that forces a $40B (4%) markdown in capital at the depositories and still expect things to carry on iaw the 4Q growth trend sorry.

That tax bill simply was not well thought out... I hope this short term effect of the change in policy effecting $40B of certain financial asset values is all that is damaging about it...

We'll have to see how long it takes the depositories to recover from this; they seemed to have made progress towards recovery in 1Q and reported strong profit growth but effects may still linger here into the 2Q.

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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