Thursday , November 21 2024
Home / Mike Norman Economics / What Happened in Bolivia’s 2019 Vote Count?

What Happened in Bolivia’s 2019 Vote Count?

Summary:
November 2019, Guillaume Long, David Rosnick, Cavan Kharrazian, and Kevin Cashman It was all very fair.  This paper presents results from statistical analysis of election returns and tally sheets from Bolivia’s October 20 elections. This analysis finds no evidence that irregularities or fraud affected the official result that gave President Evo Morales a first-round victory. The paper presents a step-by-step breakdown of what happened with Bolivia’s vote counts (both the unofficial quick count, and the slower official count), seeking to dispel confusion over the process. The report includes the results of 500 simulations that show that Morales’s first-round victory was not just possible, but probable, based on the results of the initial 83.85 percent of votes in the quick count.

Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

New Economics Foundation writes Building hope

New Economics Foundation writes Are oil and gas workers the coalminers of our generation?

Mike Norman writes Tariffs As A Fiscal Tool? — Brian Romanchuk

John Quiggin writes Trump’s dictatorship is a fait accompli

November 2019, Guillaume Long, David Rosnick, Cavan Kharrazian, and Kevin Cashman


It was all very fair. 

This paper presents results from statistical analysis of election returns and tally sheets from Bolivia’s October 20 elections. This analysis finds no evidence that irregularities or fraud affected the official result that gave President Evo Morales a first-round victory. The paper presents a step-by-step breakdown of what happened with Bolivia’s vote counts (both the unofficial quick count, and the slower official count), seeking to dispel confusion over the process. The report includes the results of 500 simulations that show that Morales’s first-round victory was not just possible, but probable, based on the results of the initial 83.85 percent of votes in the quick count.

CEPR
PDF



Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *