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China economy reports lowest GDP growth on record for second quarter as US trade war bites — Sidney Leng

Summary:
China’s economy grew by 6.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2019, the lowest figure since records began in March 1992, but other data for June better than expected While this falls within Beijing’s GDP target for the year of between 6 to 6.5 per cent, it also shows the pressure the economy is under with the US trade war ongoing More wishful thinking. The Western media give the impression that the China economy is in decline when it's still sizzling growth moderated slightly and one reporting period does not make a trend. China reported GDP growing at 6.2 per cent in the second quarter and 6.4 per cent in the first. This is in the target range of 6.0 to 6.5. So China is not exactly sweating this, let alone hurting, as the Western media imply. In addition, it fits into the current

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  • China’s economy grew by 6.2 per cent in the second quarter of 2019, the lowest figure since records began in March 1992, but other data for June better than expected
  • While this falls within Beijing’s GDP target for the year of between 6 to 6.5 per cent, it also shows the pressure the economy is under with the US trade war ongoing
More wishful thinking. The Western media give the impression that the China economy is in decline when it's still sizzling growth moderated slightly and one reporting period does not make a trend. China reported GDP growing at 6.2 per cent in the second quarter and 6.4 per cent in the first. This is in the target range of 6.0 to 6.5. So China is not exactly sweating this, let alone hurting, as the Western media imply.

In addition, it fits into the current five-year plan to switch from a predominantly export driven economy running a chronic fiscal surplus to a consumer driven economy that also supports the emergence of the renminbi as reserve currency.  (The renminbi is the Chinese currency and the yuan is the unit of account.) If the yuan is to become a reserve currency, China must provide its currency as a saving vehicle.that is also accepted in international exchange.

What is much more significant is the military pressure that the US is bringing to bear against China to the east in the South China Sea and Taiwan, as well as supporting Islamist proxy forces in China's west. In addition, the US and UK are fomenting revolution in Hong Kong. Any of these can become a flash point. The US is also actively attempting to undermine the BRI, which threatens Chinese control of the Eurasian land mass and dominance of what geo-strategist Halford Mackinder called "the world island" which is the strategically most sensitive area on earth.

Much more significant also, is the US attempt to decouple only itself from China economically but also the rest of the world, isolating China economically and reducing its global influence.

Otherwise, this is a pretty useful post in providing details on the Chinese economy.

South China Morning Post
China economy reports lowest GDP growth on record for second quarter as US trade war bites

Sidney Leng
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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