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Does that mean the Tories are finished? The future is left. Blue Labour and the Tories are destined to become a minority. We think the trend in previous generations has been from left to right as the electorate ages. Even if that is true, is there really going to be such a dramatic shift in political leaning as to redress such a huge imbalance between Tory and Labour support within this generation? Add into the mix the views of the next age group up: In the 24–49 age bracket, we’re talking 28% for Tories vs 49% for Labour. Averaging that out, that’s over 50% of 18–49 year olds for Labour, and about 19% for Tories. In order then for these current generation’s views to mirror those of the older generations, it would require a 50% swing to the right. That means that
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Mike Norman considers the following as important:
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Does that mean the Tories are finished? The future is left. Blue Labour and the Tories are destined to become a minority. We think the trend in previous generations has been from left to right as the electorate ages. Even if that is true, is there really going to be such a dramatic shift in political leaning as to redress such a huge imbalance between Tory and Labour support within this generation? Add into the mix the views of the next age group up: In the 24–49 age bracket, we’re talking 28% for Tories vs 49% for Labour. Averaging that out, that’s over 50% of 18–49 year olds for Labour, and about 19% for Tories. In order then for these current generation’s views to mirror those of the older generations, it would require a 50% swing to the right. That means that
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
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Does that mean the Tories are finished?
We think the trend in previous generations has been from left to right as the electorate ages. Even if that is true, is there really going to be such a dramatic shift in political leaning as to redress such a huge imbalance between Tory and Labour support within this generation?
Add into the mix the views of the next age group up:
In the 24–49 age bracket, we’re talking 28% for Tories vs 49% for Labour.
Averaging that out, that’s over 50% of 18–49 year olds for Labour, and about 19% for Tories.
In order then for these current generation’s views to mirror those of the older generations, it would require a 50% swing to the right.
That means that 50% of the current 50ish% of 18–49 year olds who are left-wingers would need to do a complete about-face turn sometime in middle age.
It’s possible, sure, but it seems unlikely.
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