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P.H. Yu — America Must Face Reality on China

Summary:
As the US is trying to do with China now, Britain tried to constrain the rise of its former colony become competitor. That didn't turn out so well. The US should take note. China is now pursuing a similar catch up and surpass policy that the US used against Great Britain, namely, "the American system of Hamilton and Clay," or "the national system "of Friedrich List. "Follow the leader," aka "leapfrogging."Project SyndicateAmerica Must Face Reality on China P.H. Yu | Chairman of the Council of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking UniversitySee also Depending on what exchange rate you use for comparing GDP, China either already has a larger GDP than the US (using a purchasing power parity exchange rate) or will soon have a larger GDP than the US (using a market exchange

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As the US is trying to do with China now, Britain tried to constrain the rise of its former colony become competitor. That didn't turn out so well. The US should take note.

China is now pursuing a similar catch up and surpass policy that the US used against Great Britain, namely, "the American system of Hamilton and Clay," or "the national system "of Friedrich List. "Follow the leader," aka "leapfrogging."

Project Syndicate
America Must Face Reality on China
P.H. Yu | Chairman of the Council of the Institute of New Structural Economics at Peking University

See also

Depending on what exchange rate you use for comparing GDP, China either already has a larger GDP than the US (using a purchasing power parity exchange rate) or will soon have a larger GDP than the US (using a market exchange rate). Stepping outside the economic issues here to the subject of international relations, does this higher GDP translate into greater international power? Michael Beckley tackles this question in "The Power of Nations Measuring What Matters," appearing in the Fall 2018 issue of International Security (43:2, pp. 7–44)
I am not convinced. The assumptions and parameters of the analysis are too gross and too limited. It's more complicated and more nuanced.

The bottom line is that countries that are more developed economically are able mount state of the art military technology at scale.  Russia is not as developed as the US economically but it a peer militarily and ahead of the US in some aspects of technology. While China is not yet a military peer, it is catching up and is ahead in some areas. Both Russia and China have mounted MAD deterrence based on advanced technological capability.

Conversable Economist
How Does China's Higher GDP Translate into National Power?
Timothy Taylor | Managing editor of the Journal of Economic Perspectives, based at Macalester College in St. Paul, Minnesota

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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