Sunday , November 24 2024
Home / Mike Norman Economics / Primer: The Fiscal Multiplier — Brian Romanchuk

Primer: The Fiscal Multiplier — Brian Romanchuk

Summary:
The concept of the fiscal multiplier can be viewed as simple, but there are many potential complexities to analysis. In this text, I keep the discussion simple (with a nod towards the complexities). There are multiple potential definitions of the fiscal multiplier, but I will use a straightforward one: it is the coefficient relating the expected change of nominal GDP based on an assumed change in a fiscal variable. For example, if a policy change scenario is expected to raise the fiscal deficit by 0 million (relative to baseline), and the modelled change to nominal GDP is 0 million higher than the baseline, we could say that the multiplier is 1.5 from the deficit to GDP. The definition deliberately uses the vague term “fiscal variable” for reasons to be discussed later.... Bond

Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:
The concept of the fiscal multiplier can be viewed as simple, but there are many potential complexities to analysis. In this text, I keep the discussion simple (with a nod towards the complexities). There are multiple potential definitions of the fiscal multiplier, but I will use a straightforward one: it is the coefficient relating the expected change of nominal GDP based on an assumed change in a fiscal variable. For example, if a policy change scenario is expected to raise the fiscal deficit by $100 million (relative to baseline), and the modelled change to nominal GDP is $150 million higher than the baseline, we could say that the multiplier is 1.5 from the deficit to GDP.
The definition deliberately uses the vague term “fiscal variable” for reasons to be discussed later....
Bond Economics
Primer: The Fiscal Multiplier
Brian Romanchuk
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *