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“Conflict Will Continue To Intensify” – Ray Dalio

Summary:
In my view, the root of the problem is in the socio-economic system loosely called "capitalism" and it cannot be overcome without a redesign of the system, which is not actual democracy but rather plutocratic oligarchy. If "capitalism" is defined as a socio-economic system (not merely an economic system) that favors "capital" (property ownership), with "land" folded into capital, over the other factors, namely, "labor" and "natural resources," based on the priority of "capital" for "growth," then social, political and economic asymmetry increases as a function of institutional arrangements. Social asymmetry manifests as class interest; political asymmetry manifests as power of an elite class, and economic asymmetry manifests as distribution skewed toward the top. This is just the

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In my view, the root of the problem is in the socio-economic system loosely called "capitalism" and it cannot be overcome without a redesign of the system, which is not actual democracy but rather plutocratic oligarchy.

If "capitalism" is defined as a socio-economic system (not merely an economic system) that favors "capital" (property ownership), with "land" folded into capital, over the other factors, namely, "labor" and "natural resources," based on the priority of "capital" for "growth," then social, political and economic asymmetry increases as a function of institutional arrangements. Social asymmetry manifests as class interest; political asymmetry manifests as power of an elite class, and economic asymmetry manifests as distribution skewed toward the top. This is just the natural outcome of operations based on the model.

As far as the manifestation of the problem goes, the underlying factors are poverty, asymmetric distribution, institutional corruption, lack of education and inferior education, and moral decay. Also involved are elite factionalism, elite-populist conflict, and social and political divisiveness. All this has come together at the time of a pandemic, which has created conditions for the outbreak.

None of this is a day in the making. These are long standing problems, as Ray Dalio points out. Failure to address the salient issues successfully has left the entire system vulnerable. Now the cracks are appearing.

The solution is reordering priorities to put emphasis on "labor" (people) and "natural resources" (environment) to make ecology superior to growth on the principle, don't shit in the nest. Then it may be possible to achieve actual democracy as governance of, by and for the people rather than for the "lucky" ones by birth and those that "worked hard to get where they are and what they have all by themselves."

The first step would be to replace the "market state" with a "welfare state" (as in "common good" and "general welfare") in which governance is oriented toward public purpose. It's a change in mindset.
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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