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Gideon Meyerowitz-Katz – As Covid-19 persists around the world, death is not the only outcome to fear

Summary:
Know one knows for certain what letting Coronavirus running uncontrolled through our society would do? One scenario it could fizzle out after it has killed about 30% of very old people who were about to die anyway.  It is said that if Lockdowns damage our economies too much, then many more people would die than Covid-19 would ever kill, which may be true, but we don't know for certain. I tend to share the view of Mr. Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, that coronavirus running amok in our society would do far more damage to our economies than the Lockdowns would because people would panic, but again no one knows for sure. Perhaps, although it’s worth noting that in Australia and the UK a death rate of 1% would imply hundreds of thousands of deaths before

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Know one knows for certain what letting Coronavirus running uncontrolled through our society would do? One scenario it could fizzle out after it has killed about 30% of very old people who were about to die anyway. 

It is said that if Lockdowns damage our economies too much, then many more people would die than Covid-19 would ever kill, which may be true, but we don't know for certain. I tend to share the view of Mr. Kashkari, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, that coronavirus running amok in our society would do far more damage to our economies than the Lockdowns would because people would panic, but again no one knows for sure.

Perhaps, although it’s worth noting that in Australia and the UK a death rate of 1% would imply hundreds of thousands of deaths before the virus burned itself out. Moreover, those who are hospitalised – a significant proportion of Covid-19 patients – will certainly suffer. And even those with more mild disease may not be exempt from long-term harm. While government restrictions are starting to feel onerous, the fact is that we simply do not know enough about this disease to be sure that even the lowest risk is acceptable. We’ve got a handle on short-term, acute issues – the things that we see in a hospital – but we’re still only just discovering what the long-term issues that this disease causes might be.

Unfortunately, the damage that Covid-19 causes is almost certainly not confined entirely to the death rate. We may not know for some time exactly what else it causes, but even now we have enough evidence to know that there are other problems out there. Letting everyone get infected is a strategy that, even ignoring the enormous death toll, could leave us much worse off as a society.

The Guardian 


Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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