Tuesday , April 8 2025

Full Japan

Summary:
And we STILL have 5 more weeks of this Fed buying all of the net issuance... STILL... this is just like last summer under "debt ceiling!" only no "extraordinary measures" available...  Fed is just buying...  IT... ALL...  5 more weeks... STILL!...I had hoped Mike's "full Japan" would take a nice slooooow year or two to sell some UST puts every week and make a $bazillion ...  but looks like it may only take a month at this rate oh well... foiled again! ...They could put the whole 4T into 10 year at current 0.7% it would get them 28B....  IOR at 1.1% on 1.8T of Reserves costs them about 20B leaving only 8B... its imo not enough for them...  probably going to have to cut the IOR liability again... maybe they can make the March meeting...At least the IOR rate reduction helps support risk

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And we STILL have 5 more weeks of this Fed buying all of the net issuance... STILL... this is just like last summer under "debt ceiling!" only no "extraordinary measures" available...  Fed is just buying...  IT... ALL...  5 more weeks... STILL!...

I had hoped Mike's "full Japan" would take a nice slooooow year or two to sell some UST puts every week and make a $bazillion ...  but looks like it may only take a month at this rate oh well... foiled again! ...

They could put the whole 4T into 10 year at current 0.7% it would get them 28B....  IOR at 1.1% on 1.8T of Reserves costs them about 20B leaving only 8B... its imo not enough for them...  probably going to have to cut the IOR liability again... maybe they can make the March meeting...

At least the IOR rate reduction helps support risk asset prices and equity prices seem to bottom or at least stabilize...

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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