Summary:
The US economy is beginning to recover in some respects. But is the recovery being threatened by the overhang of private debt? A fast recovery would take care of this issue on its own, but a gradual recovery or a setback would exacerbate it. To some degree this is a policy choice, but it also depends on the direction of the pandemic. The past is not always predictive of the future, but judging on the basis of previous pandemics, it takes about two year to work its way through a society enough to produce herd immunity, after many deaths. This obviously influences the willingness of the public to carry on normal business owing to the risk of exposure. However, what's new is the Internet and online transactions, with a delivery system in place. So it appears that politicians
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
The US economy is beginning to recover in some respects. But is the recovery being threatened by the overhang of private debt? A fast recovery would take care of this issue on its own, but a gradual recovery or a setback would exacerbate it. To some degree this is a policy choice, but it also depends on the direction of the pandemic. The past is not always predictive of the future, but judging on the basis of previous pandemics, it takes about two year to work its way through a society enough to produce herd immunity, after many deaths. This obviously influences the willingness of the public to carry on normal business owing to the risk of exposure. However, what's new is the Internet and online transactions, with a delivery system in place. So it appears that politicians
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
Matias Vernengo writes Elon Musk (& Vivek Ramaswamy) on hardship, because he knows so much about it
Lars Pålsson Syll writes Klas Eklunds ‘Vår ekonomi’ — lärobok med stora brister
New Economics Foundation writes We need more than a tax on the super rich to deliver climate and economic justice
Robert Vienneau writes Profits Not Explained By Merit, Increased Risk, Increased Ability To Compete, Etc.
A fast recovery would take care of this issue on its own, but a gradual recovery or a setback would exacerbate it.
To some degree this is a policy choice, but it also depends on the direction of the pandemic. The past is not always predictive of the future, but judging on the basis of previous pandemics, it takes about two year to work its way through a society enough to produce herd immunity, after many deaths.
This obviously influences the willingness of the public to carry on normal business owing to the risk of exposure. However, what's new is the Internet and online transactions, with a delivery system in place.
So it appears that politicians and policy makers really need to be looking closely at the issue of ability to service private debt in the absence of a policy remedy unless there would be significant voluntary restructuring.
The problem is, however, that it is a systemic issue. Ad hoc patches are are not well thought out are not likely to do the job.
Calculated Risk
Lawler: Serious Delinquency Rate on FHA-Insured SF Loans Up Again in August
Bill McBride
Lawler: Serious Delinquency Rate on FHA-Insured SF Loans Up Again in August
Bill McBride
See also at CR
On the other hand, some improvement, too.
Black Knight: Number of Homeowners in COVID-19-Related Forbearance Plans Decreased