by We are in new territory and sailing in uncharted waters. Be there dragons on the way. or submerged reefs ahead? Oh, and did a mention that the guide is blind and senile, and the captain and senior officers have no idea what a compass is? Last month’s analysis of the US labour force data – Tip of the iceberg – the US labour market catastrophe now playing out (April 6, 2020) – presaged what was to come. We now know more about the size of the iceberg. It is unimaginably large. Words fail really. This is one of those all-time historical events that make the severe crises of the past (early 1980s, 1990s, GFC – look like blips). On May 8, 2020, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest labour market data – Employment Situation Summary – April 2020 – which shows that the US
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We are in new territory and sailing in uncharted waters. Be there dragons on the way. or submerged reefs ahead? Oh, and did a mention that the guide is blind and senile, and the captain and senior officers have no idea what a compass is?
Last month’s analysis of the US labour force data – Tip of the iceberg – the US labour market catastrophe now playing out (April 6, 2020) – presaged what was to come. We now know more about the size of the iceberg. It is unimaginably large. Words fail really. This is one of those all-time historical events that make the severe crises of the past (early 1980s, 1990s, GFC – look like blips). On May 8, 2020, the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) released their latest labour market data – Employment Situation Summary – April 2020 – which shows that the US labour market has collapsed into territory never before recorded. And, given that the data released was drawn from samples that went up to April 12 (establishment survey) and April 18 (household survey), and so doesn’t fully capture the extent of the unfolding catastrophe. More recent data released by the US Department of Labor (unemployment insurance claimant data) shows the situation worsened in the last two weeks of April. In the last two weeks of April 2020, more than 9 million extra workers registered unemployment insurance claims. All the aggregates are demonstrating dramatic shifts to the point that graphs are becoming rather binary – the rest of history and now. The employment-population rate plunged 8.7 points to 51.3 per cent, which is the largest monthly fall since the sample began in January 1948. The U6 measure of broad labour underutilisation increased by 14 points to 22.8 per cent. This is the largest monthly rise in this measure since it was first published in January 1994. The situation will get worse. Its already catastrophic and it demonstrates a massive policy failure from the Federal government. Instead of directing trillions into the top-end-of-town, the US government should have guaranteed all incomes and introduced large-scale job creation programs and a Job Guarantee as an on-going safety net. Instead it is watching over people dying and people’s material prosperity being destroyed....
I have never seen these sorts of monthly shifts.
No-one has.
The scale of the crisis requires dramatic interventions.
The current position of the US government has biased their stimulus spending towards the corporate sector and high income earners.
It disadvantages precarious workers and those losing jobs.
The US government should immediately announce an unconditional Job Guarantee and guarantee salaries for all workers made redundant....Not gonna happen. Watch out below. Anvil dropping.
"Precarity" is taking on new meaning.
Let's be clear about this. It is a massive failure of capitalism based on "the intelligence of markets" and also a massive failure of representative democracy as only the top of the town is protected institutionally and workers serve as pawns in the game of keeping the wealthy wealthy.
Bill Mitchell – billy blog
US labour market data – we have never been here before!
Bill Mitchell | Professor in Economics and Director of the Centre of Full Employment and Equity (CofFEE), at University of Newcastle, NSW, Australia
See also
The Guardian
43 Million Americans Could Lose Health Insurance Amid Pandemic