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New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought

Summary:
A study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a faA study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate lower fatality rate. Trish Keenan, the singer/ song writer in the British avant-garde band, Broadcast, was touring Australia 9 years ago when caught the flu and died of pneumonia. She was only 42. Covid-19 may be very contagious but could possibly less lethal than the flu, according to new research. The high numbers of fatalities are due to the high nunber of people getting infected. That's bad, but Dr. Jay Bhattacharya says we may be doing uneccessary harm to our economy. Although the real problem is that our hospitals can't cope with the amount of people becoming seriously ill.It seems that 50 % of people get

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A study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a faA study finds 50 to 85 times as many infections as known cases—meaning a far lower fatality rate lower fatality rate.


Trish Keenan, the singer/ song writer in the British avant-garde band, Broadcast, was touring Australia 9 years ago when caught the flu and died of pneumonia. She was only 42.

Covid-19 may be very contagious but could possibly less lethal than the flu, according to new research. The high numbers of fatalities are due to the high nunber of people getting infected. That's bad, but Dr. Jay Bhattacharya says we may be doing uneccessary harm to our economy. Although the real problem is that our hospitals can't cope with the amount of people becoming seriously ill.

It seems that 50 % of people get no symptoms, and so they are helping to bring about herd immunity because they are out and about infecting people. 


Covid-19 shutdowns have been based on the premise that the disease would kill more than two million Americans absent drastic actions to slow its spread. That model assumed case fatality rates—the share of infected people who die from the disease—of 1% to 3%. The World Health Organization’s estimated case-fatality rate was 3.4%.

Some experts—including in these pages—have questioned this assumption. They argue that known cases are likely only a small portion of the true number of infections, and thus high case-fatality rates could be off by orders of magnitude. We don’t know what portion of infections have gone undetected for a lack of tests, restrictive qualifications to get tested, and a potentially large incidence of mild illness or asymptomatic infection. 


New Data Suggest the Coronavirus Isn’t as Deadly as We Thought

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Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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