by I see very few reasons to expect a return to pre-COVID normal in most countries any time soon. Countries will need to adapt to the "pandemic normal," where activities will have to in line with preventing super-spreading incidents. Right now, the economic concern is cascading business/household failures. Fiscal deficits will put a floor under that process. What will the new steady state look like? The main interesting question is how income flows are re-shaped.... I have a couple of observations.1. What about debt-servicing? When the majority leader of the Senate talks about US states filing for bankruptcy instead of being bailed out by the federal government, one wonders. 2. We know from the Great Depression that the elite pressured FDR to tighten the fiscal stance, which he did
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I see very few reasons to expect a return to pre-COVID normal in most countries any time soon. Countries will need to adapt to the "pandemic normal," where activities will have to in line with preventing super-spreading incidents. Right now, the economic concern is cascading business/household failures. Fiscal deficits will put a floor under that process. What will the new steady state look like? The main interesting question is how income flows are re-shaped....I have a couple of observations.
1. What about debt-servicing? When the majority leader of the Senate talks about US states filing for bankruptcy instead of being bailed out by the federal government, one wonders.
2. We know from the Great Depression that the elite pressured FDR to tighten the fiscal stance, which he did prematurely, short-circuiting the recovery. The recovery did not take place owing to "Keynesianism." It resulted from the massive deficit spending to fund WWII, which no patriotic person would question as necessary. We we facing anything similar?
Bond Economics
Brian Romanchuk