Tuesday , April 8 2025
Home / Mike Norman Economics / The Perils Of Non-Causal Models: r* Edition — Brian Romanchuk

The Perils Of Non-Causal Models: r* Edition — Brian Romanchuk

Summary:
One important property of time series is models is whether they are causal or non-causal. A non-causal model has the property that future values of inputs affects the current values of outputs. For time series, the calculation implies the use of a time machine, which is generally not available. One needs to be careful of the issues posed by non-causality in financial model building, since time series libraries treat time series as single units, and contain many non-causal operations.... Bond Economics The Perils Of Non-Causal Models: r* EditionBrian Romanchuk

Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Jeremy Smith writes UK workers’ pay over 6 years – just about keeping up with inflation (but one sector does much better…)

Robert Vienneau writes The Emergence of Triple Switching and the Rarity of Reswitching Explained

Lars Pålsson Syll writes Schuldenbremse bye bye

Robert Skidelsky writes Lord Skidelsky to ask His Majesty’s Government what is their policy with regard to the Ukraine war following the new policy of the government of the United States of America.

One important property of time series is models is whether they are causal or non-causal. A non-causal model has the property that future values of inputs affects the current values of outputs. For time series, the calculation implies the use of a time machine, which is generally not available. One needs to be careful of the issues posed by non-causality in financial model building, since time series libraries treat time series as single units, and contain many non-causal operations....
Bond Economics
The Perils Of Non-Causal Models: r* Edition
Brian Romanchuk
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *