Thursday , December 3 2020
Home / Mike Norman Economics / What went wrong with the polls in 2020? Another example. — Andrew Gelman

What went wrong with the polls in 2020? Another example. — Andrew Gelman

Summary:
From the news articles about Cahaly’s polling, it seems that a key aspect of their method is to measure intensity of preferences, and it seems that Republicans won the voter turnout battle this yea....This was predictable for two reasons. First, Donald Trump is a far more savvy politician and better persuader than his opposition. Secondly, the Democrats are fighting an internal civil war  between tthe establishment and progressive wings. (The GOP already fought their civil war, and DJT and the populists won.) The result was greater voter intensity on the side of the GOP.Intensity is a major factor, as activists know.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceWhat went wrong with the polls in 2020? Another example.Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science

Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:

This could be interesting, too:

Lars Pålsson Syll writes The science of anti-vaccination

Mike Norman writes My new podcast episode is out.

Mike Norman writes How COVID-19 killed Donald Trump’s Hope of Re-election – New Research

Lars Pålsson Syll writes Vaccin och vetenskap

From the news articles about Cahaly’s polling, it seems that a key aspect of their method is to measure intensity of preferences, and it seems that Republicans won the voter turnout battle this yea....
This was predictable for two reasons. First, Donald Trump is a far more savvy politician and better persuader than his opposition. Secondly, the Democrats are fighting an internal civil war  between tthe establishment and progressive wings. (The GOP already fought their civil war, and DJT and the populists won.) The result was greater voter intensity on the side of the GOP.

Intensity is a major factor, as activists know.

Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
What went wrong with the polls in 2020? Another example.
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *