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From the news articles about Cahaly’s polling, it seems that a key aspect of their method is to measure intensity of preferences, and it seems that Republicans won the voter turnout battle this yea....This was predictable for two reasons. First, Donald Trump is a far more savvy politician and better persuader than his opposition. Secondly, the Democrats are fighting an internal civil war between tthe establishment and progressive wings. (The GOP already fought their civil war, and DJT and the populists won.) The result was greater voter intensity on the side of the GOP.Intensity is a major factor, as activists know.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceWhat went wrong with the polls in 2020? Another example.Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science
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From the news articles about Cahaly’s polling, it seems that a key aspect of their method is to measure intensity of preferences, and it seems that Republicans won the voter turnout battle this yea....This was predictable for two reasons. First, Donald Trump is a far more savvy politician and better persuader than his opposition. Secondly, the Democrats are fighting an internal civil war between tthe establishment and progressive wings. (The GOP already fought their civil war, and DJT and the populists won.) The result was greater voter intensity on the side of the GOP.Intensity is a major factor, as activists know.Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social ScienceWhat went wrong with the polls in 2020? Another example.Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
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From the news articles about Cahaly’s polling, it seems that a key aspect of their method is to measure intensity of preferences, and it seems that Republicans won the voter turnout battle this yea....This was predictable for two reasons. First, Donald Trump is a far more savvy politician and better persuader than his opposition. Secondly, the Democrats are fighting an internal civil war between tthe establishment and progressive wings. (The GOP already fought their civil war, and DJT and the populists won.) The result was greater voter intensity on the side of the GOP.
Intensity is a major factor, as activists know.
Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science
What went wrong with the polls in 2020? Another example.
Andrew Gelman | Professor of Statistics and Political Science and Director of the Applied Statistics Center, Columbia University