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The big macro issue facing us is the question of inflation that results from activity restrictions. I wrote about inflation forecasting earlier, and the key take-away is that CPI prints will depend heavily upon the weight of each component, and the components will be moving in different directions. However, one might want to step up away from CPI forecasting, and ask about the generic supply and demand situation, accepting that the resulting inflation might not be captured by the CPI. My guess is that we will not know for awhile, but I am not exactly holding my breath waiting for inflation.... Bond EconomicsSupply And Demand: To Be Determined Brian Romanchuk
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The big macro issue facing us is the question of inflation that results from activity restrictions. I wrote about inflation forecasting earlier, and the key take-away is that CPI prints will depend heavily upon the weight of each component, and the components will be moving in different directions. However, one might want to step up away from CPI forecasting, and ask about the generic supply and demand situation, accepting that the resulting inflation might not be captured by the CPI. My guess is that we will not know for awhile, but I am not exactly holding my breath waiting for inflation.... Bond EconomicsSupply And Demand: To Be Determined Brian Romanchuk
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Mike Norman considers the following as important:
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The big macro issue facing us is the question of inflation that results from activity restrictions. I wrote about inflation forecasting earlier, and the key take-away is that CPI prints will depend heavily upon the weight of each component, and the components will be moving in different directions. However, one might want to step up away from CPI forecasting, and ask about the generic supply and demand situation, accepting that the resulting inflation might not be captured by the CPI. My guess is that we will not know for awhile, but I am not exactly holding my breath waiting for inflation....Bond Economics
Supply And Demand: To Be Determined
Brian Romanchuk