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Supply And Demand: To Be Determined — Brian Romanchuk

Summary:
The big macro issue facing us is the question of inflation that results from activity restrictions. I wrote about inflation forecasting earlier, and the key take-away is that CPI prints will depend heavily upon the weight of each component, and the components will be moving in different directions. However, one might want to step up away from CPI forecasting, and ask about the generic supply and demand situation, accepting that the resulting inflation might not be captured by the CPI. My guess is that we will not know for awhile, but I am not exactly holding my breath waiting for inflation.... Bond EconomicsSupply And Demand: To Be Determined Brian Romanchuk

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The big macro issue facing us is the question of inflation that results from activity restrictions. I wrote about inflation forecasting earlier, and the key take-away is that CPI prints will depend heavily upon the weight of each component, and the components will be moving in different directions. However, one might want to step up away from CPI forecasting, and ask about the generic supply and demand situation, accepting that the resulting inflation might not be captured by the CPI. My guess is that we will not know for awhile, but I am not exactly holding my breath waiting for inflation....
Bond Economics
Supply And Demand: To Be Determined
Brian Romanchuk
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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