Friday , May 3 2024

TGA

Summary:
Treasury may be trying to counter-act the nutty Fed policy of buying up the whole savings deficit of B USTs per month...   by increasing the rate of UST issuance and running up the TGA...This is just like last summer under the "debt ceiling!" redux...  enjoy the bond rally while it lasts.... I think this 0B might be an all time high on the TGA...Maybe trying to increase the issuance rate to get at least SOME Tier1 UST assets to the non-govt so Fed doesn't spike the Reserve Assets at the banks again and crash the whole thing again like 2008.... which interestingly was another election year...If the Fed crashes it again here I think it would be harmful to Trump...But on the Trump side, the other thing is now with this account up at 0B is the Treasury going to operate to keep it

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Treasury may be trying to counter-act the nutty Fed policy of buying up the whole savings deficit of $80B USTs per month...   by increasing the rate of UST issuance and running up the TGA...

This is just like last summer under the "debt ceiling!" redux...  enjoy the bond rally while it lasts....

TGA

I think this $470B might be an all time high on the TGA...

Maybe trying to increase the issuance rate to get at least SOME Tier1 UST assets to the non-govt so Fed doesn't spike the Reserve Assets at the banks again and crash the whole thing again like 2008.... which interestingly was another election year...

If the Fed crashes it again here I think it would be harmful to Trump...

But on the Trump side, the other thing is now with this account up at $470B is the Treasury going to operate to keep it there even after the Fed stops buying all the UST issuance after Tax Day?  If they run it back down by $250B quickly (providing appearance of reducing "teh deficit!" heading into election day???) it may even be worse than what the Fed is currently doing as Fed is only adding $60B per month...

Without debriefing the policy makers its impossible to know for sure....

Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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