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The Black Swan Theory

Summary:
This video explains the probability of a Black Swan event, and how governments aren't preparing for the high probability a Carrington Event which could damage the national grid and telecoms systems. [embedded content]The Black Swan TheoryThe threat from the Sun: should we be worrying about coronal mass ejections?Scientists have real concerns that extreme weather on the Sun’s surface could unleash a catastrophe on humanity2019 study in the journal Scientific Reports found a 0.5-1.9% chance of a Carrington-level storm happening in the next decade. However, Nasa experts expect the Sun’s activity to “ramp up” during the current solar cycle – with a peak in activity due in July 2025. Even in the worst-case scenario, solar storms take one to three days to hit Earth – so with luck, there should

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This video explains the probability of a Black Swan event, and how governments aren't preparing for the high probability a Carrington Event which could damage the national grid and telecoms systems. 





The Black Swan Theory


The threat from the Sun: should we be worrying about coronal mass ejections?

Scientists have real concerns that extreme weather on the Sun’s surface could unleash a catastrophe on humanity


2019 study in the journal Scientific Reports found a 0.5-1.9% chance of a Carrington-level storm happening in the next decade. However, Nasa experts expect the Sun’s activity to “ramp up” during the current solar cycle – with a peak in activity due in July 2025. Even in the worst-case scenario, solar storms take one to three days to hit Earth – so with luck, there should be time to prepare.


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Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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