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Is Russia a ‘dying bear?’ After large population fall during 2020, demographic situation is worrying for Moscow, but not desperate — Paul Robinson

Summary:
Economic growth is linked to population growth. Russia's demographics are not exceptional, however. Population decline is becoming the norm, and it is not just the pandemic. It's the national birth rates.Beyond this, modern societies do not encourage large families. Young people are in education for longer, thus postponing marriage and children. Women have more career opportunities, producing similar results. And children are expensive. State assistance can do something about the last factor, but can only mitigate it, not eliminate it. Meanwhile, the first two factors are largely beyond the state’s power. Even the strongest ruler can’t force his people to have children.…One of the biggest reasons for the change in number of children per family is that a large family is no longer an

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Economic growth is linked to population growth. Russia's demographics are not exceptional, however. Population decline is becoming the norm, and it is not just the pandemic. It's the national birth rates.
Beyond this, modern societies do not encourage large families. Young people are in education for longer, thus postponing marriage and children. Women have more career opportunities, producing similar results. And children are expensive. State assistance can do something about the last factor, but can only mitigate it, not eliminate it. Meanwhile, the first two factors are largely beyond the state’s power. Even the strongest ruler can’t force his people to have children.…
One of the biggest reasons for the change in number of children per family is that a large family is no longer an economic necessity, and it is even becoming an economic burden.

Paul Robinson | Professor, Graduate School of Public and International Affairs at the University of Ottawa
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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