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Debating the value of randomization — Lars P. Syll

Summary:
This post is slightly longish and a bit wonkish, but important. It is summed up in a quote of Andrew Gelman that is cited in the argument.Much of the literature in statistics, econometrics, and epidemiology on causal identification misses this point, by focusing on the procedures of scientific investigation—in particular, tools such as randomization and p-values which are intended to enforce rigor—without recognizing that rigor is empty without something to be rigorous about.In short, process (method) ends up getting confused with substance (fact).Cause causality is a bitch.Lars P. Syll’s BlogDebating the value of randomizationLars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo Universityhttps://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2022/02/08/debating-the-value-of-randomization/

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 This post is slightly longish and a bit wonkish, but important. It is summed up in a quote of Andrew Gelman that is cited in the argument.

Much of the literature in statistics, econometrics, and epidemiology on causal identification misses this point, by focusing on the procedures of scientific investigation—in particular, tools such as randomization and p-values which are intended to enforce rigor—without recognizing that rigor is empty without something to be rigorous about.

In short, process (method) ends up getting confused with substance (fact).


Cause causality is a bitch.

Lars P. Syll’s Blog
Debating the value of randomization
Lars P. Syll | Professor, Malmo University
https://larspsyll.wordpress.com/2022/02/08/debating-the-value-of-randomization/
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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