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Oil Prices And Sanctions Strategy: The Apparent Contradiction — John Kemp

Summary:
If the U.S. government’s view is correct, spot prices and the backwardation should both fall as oil and gas continues to flow, easing some of the fear about a recessionary spike in prices.If traders are correct, the disruption of oil and gas supplies (actual or threatened), possibly as a result of a miscalculation about the escalation ladder, will worsen inflation and increase the risk of a recession.But given the contradiction between where prices are trading and the U.S. government’s strategy, someone must be wrong.Zero HedgeOil Prices And Sanctions Strategy: The Apparent Contradiction John Kemp, senior market analyst at Reuters

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If the U.S. government’s view is correct, spot prices and the backwardation should both fall as oil and gas continues to flow, easing some of the fear about a recessionary spike in prices.

If traders are correct, the disruption of oil and gas supplies (actual or threatened), possibly as a result of a miscalculation about the escalation ladder, will worsen inflation and increase the risk of a recession.

But given the contradiction between where prices are trading and the U.S. government’s strategy, someone must be wrong.

Zero Hedge
Oil Prices And Sanctions Strategy: The Apparent Contradiction
John Kemp, senior market analyst at Reuters
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

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