by I just got back from vacation, and was greeted by the United States’ 2022Q2 GDP release which hit the dreaded “two quarters of contraction” status. Some people have decided that this counts as a “technical recession,” although it is unclear where the adjective “technical” comes from.Since I am catching up with everything, I am unable to do a detailed analysis. If I do anything, I will postpone it until next week. I just want to add yet more words to the “is is a recession?” debate.My view is straightforward: the NBER declares U.S. recessions, and I am not going to refer to a downturn in U.S. data as a “recession” unless the NBER has declared one. The thing to keep in mind that the declaration can arrive with a considerable lag, so I have no issues with texts arguing that one is currently
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I just got back from vacation, and was greeted by the United States’ 2022Q2 GDP release which hit the dreaded “two quarters of contraction” status. Some people have decided that this counts as a “technical recession,” although it is unclear where the adjective “technical” comes from.Bond Economics
Since I am catching up with everything, I am unable to do a detailed analysis. If I do anything, I will postpone it until next week. I just want to add yet more words to the “is is a recession?” debate.My view is straightforward: the NBER declares U.S. recessions, and I am not going to refer to a downturn in U.S. data as a “recession” unless the NBER has declared one. The thing to keep in mind that the declaration can arrive with a considerable lag, so I have no issues with texts arguing that one is currently in progress without the NBER committee declaring anything, so long as that condition is noted....
"Technical Recession" (Sigh)
Brian Romanchuk
http://www.bondeconomics.com/2022/07/technical-recession-sigh.html
See also
Econbrowser
Chris Cillizza, Ill-informed Non-Economist, on the Definition of a Recession
Menzie Chinn | Professor of Public Affairs and Economics, Robert M. La Follette School of Public Affairs, University of Wisconsin–Madison, co-editor of the Journal of International Money and Finance, and a Research Associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research International Finance and Macroeconomics
http://econbrowser.com/archives/2022/07/chris-cillizza-ill-informed-non-economist-on-the-definition-of-a-recession