by Summary:
Three scenarios are proposed: 1) Russia invades Ukraine as the US and UK charge. (Unlikely) 2) Ukraine invades Donbass using the pretext of a false flag and Russia is drawn in. US and UK charge Russian aggression. (Likely) 3) No invasion. (Maybe)1 and 2 result in Cold War with The West against Russia and China. This is apparently the US/UK objective.That seems to cover it, albeit with some nuances possible.My take. The US and UK would not be hyping this to such a high level for nothing to happen. In addition, the US/UK price for backing off is Russia completely withdrawing its forces "at the border" deeper within Russia. That is never going to happen, especially with NATO ramping up forces on Russia's borders.This will have domestic and international implications, including economic, that
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Three scenarios are proposed: 1) Russia invades Ukraine as the US and UK charge. (Unlikely) 2) Ukraine invades Donbass using the pretext of a false flag and Russia is drawn in. US and UK charge Russian aggression. (Likely) 3) No invasion. (Maybe)Three scenarios are proposed: 1) Russia invades Ukraine as the US and UK charge. (Unlikely) 2) Ukraine invades Donbass using the pretext of a false flag and Russia is drawn in. US and UK charge Russian aggression. (Likely) 3) No invasion. (Maybe)1 and 2 result in Cold War with The West against Russia and China. This is apparently the US/UK objective.That seems to cover it, albeit with some nuances possible.My take. The US and UK would not be hyping this to such a high level for nothing to happen. In addition, the US/UK price for backing off is Russia completely withdrawing its forces "at the border" deeper within Russia. That is never going to happen, especially with NATO ramping up forces on Russia's borders.This will have domestic and international implications, including economic, that
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
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1 and 2 result in Cold War with The West against Russia and China. This is apparently the US/UK objective.
That seems to cover it, albeit with some nuances possible.
My take. The US and UK would not be hyping this to such a high level for nothing to happen. In addition, the US/UK price for backing off is Russia completely withdrawing its forces "at the border" deeper within Russia. That is never going to happen, especially with NATO ramping up forces on Russia's borders.
This will have domestic and international implications, including economic, that Western leaders only partially understand. Once the boulder is rolling down the mountain, many unanticipated things can happen. Biden stated he is willing to accept consequences like higher energy prices (inflation). We'll see as the midterms approach.
One area that the authors don't take into account is political fallout in democracies, which includes all of NATO countries. Costs the public has to bear will be shouldered initially, but there would be no quick solution, so problems are likely to mount and domestic politics could get even uglier.
Alternet
Medea Benjamin, cofounder of CODEPINK for Peace, and Nicolas J. S. Davies, an independent journalist and a researcher with CODEPINK
https://www.alternet.org/2022/02/ukraine/