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Housing starts, industrial production, small business index

Summary:
Growth overall remains sluggish as the economy becomes dependent on private sector credit expansion (private sector deficit spending) to offset the too tight post-Covid fiscal policy. Fed rate hikes add interest income to the economy as gov pays more interest on the + trillion of public debt, which, if anything, supports rather than dampens demand or credit expansion, but it does contribute to higher prices which further reduces the real, inflation adjusted value of the public debt, which is a fiscal tightening. This is a repeat of 1979 where the increase in the price level exceeded the growth in deficit spending which is functionally the same as the govt running a budget surplus. Down for the month but so far the weak upward trend remains: Perhaps leveling off at

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Growth overall remains sluggish as the economy becomes dependent on private sector credit expansion (private sector deficit spending) to offset the too tight post-Covid fiscal policy.
Fed rate hikes add interest income to the economy as gov pays more interest on the $30+ trillion of public debt, which, if anything, supports rather than dampens demand or credit expansion, but it does contribute to higher prices which further reduces the real, inflation adjusted value of the public debt, which is a fiscal tightening. This is a repeat of 1979 where the increase in the price level exceeded the growth in deficit spending which is functionally the same as the govt running a budget surplus.
Down for the month but so far the weak upward trend remains:

Housing starts, industrial production, small business index

Perhaps leveling off at pre-Covid levels:

Housing starts, industrial production, small business index

Big drop in the main index but hiring plans remain elevated:

Housing starts, industrial production, small business index

WARREN MOSLER
Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

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