Friday , April 16 2021

Warren Mosler

Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

Articles by Warren Mosler

Consumer sentiment, unemployment claims, housing starts, lumber, retail sales, industrial production

February 19, 2021

Alarmingly high this long after the crisis and no longer moving lower:
Seems ‘on average’ it’s hard to say much has changed:
Though this looks promising:
Tariffs and Covid related supply issues are commonplace:
Nice move up after the move down, but still looking net lower than otherwise for the last 12 months due to the crisis:
Back towards prior levels but still way down overall for the last year:

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Small business index, JOLTS, corn

February 9, 2021

Back to where it was pre Trump:

New hires down, openings up some but that includes openings to replace higher cost workers:
Exporting our food supply (in addition to turning it into motor fuel and burning it up) so we can pay more fighting over what’s left:

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February 5, 2021

Looking bad:

Looks like the long term growth of government employment was reversed by Obama, then it increased under Trump until the covid crisis:

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Personal income and spending

February 1, 2021

Personal income went up with the crisis due to Federal transfers of the Cares Act, which subsequently faded:

Personal income excluding government support continues to lag behind prior levels:

Even with the higher levels of total personal income consumption has lagged and most recently decreased as government benefits expired:
A part of consumption comes from buying on credit, and with employment down, fewer people qualify for credit. So while the additional income reduces the need for credit in order to spend, it appears the further drop in credit due to unemployment has resulted in a net drop in consumer spending:

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Unemployment claims, Personal income, Transfer payments, Savings, Consumption, Light vehicle sales, Consumer confidence

November 25, 2020

Still climbing. This is not good:
This is bad too:
Working it’s way lower as benefits expire and employment growth sags:

Savings added by fiscal adjustments are running down:

The economy has generated a lot less personal income than it would have generated without the covid crisis:
Same with consumption, which is about 70% of gdp:

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