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WARREN MOSLER

Warren Mosler

Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

Articles by Warren Mosler

Unemployment claims, trade, vehicle sales

20 days ago

Still way above the 200,000 pre covid levels.Makes me wonder why so many people are still losing jobs:

Weaker imports is likely a sign of a weaker US consumer:

And oil isn’t much of a factor anymore:

This is seriously low as supply issues continue:
Dried-Up Inventory Sinks U.S. Light-Vehicle Sales in August :: Wards Intelligence (informa.com)
August’s annualized rate was tracking about one million units higher until the inventory-drain worsened enough that sales nosedived at the end of the month, which does not bode well for the upcoming Labor Day weekend (as well as entire-September), when the market usually gets a boost from holiday deals and promotions.

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Unemployment claims, personal income, savings and consumption

23 days ago

This has now fallen back to pre covid levels and is likely to go lower after federal unemployment benefits expire:

Expiring benefits after next week could leave a serious shortfall:

Federal spending and transfer payments have managed to restore consumption to close to pre covid levels:

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Retail sales, homebuilder sentiment, lumber, industrial production, steel

August 18, 2021

Retail sales jumped up with the Federal transfer payments and have more recentlystarted to decline as transfer payments subsided. And the remaining Federal unemployment compof $300/week expires Labor day for approximately 7 million beneficiaries:
More evidence of a housing decline, even with the lowest rates ever:
Lumber and housing often move together:
This number is seasonally adjusted, and was higher in July because auto plants typically shut down in July didn’t this year due to prior production issues:

Industrial production in the United States increased 0.9 percent in July 2021, following a downwardly revised 0.2 percent growth in June and beating market expectations of 0.5 percent. Manufacturing output rose 1.4 percent, mainly due to a jump of 11.2 percent for

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Employment, Trade, consumer credit, rails

August 8, 2021

Steady improvement but still a ways to go:

And this doesn’t look good:

We’re spending more on net imports which is fundamentally a direct benefit for us, if only our govt. knew the appropriate policy response:

Consumer credit growth has picked up as jobs are added and as Federal unemployment benefits expire:

These charts have turned down:

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ADP, vehicle sales, mtg purchase apps, durable goods

August 4, 2021

Not good. Analysts/politicians/voters expected more gains as Federal benefits expired:

Not good:

Not good:

Typical bounce after the covid dip that followed the tariff decline, but so far only back to prior levels, and less when adjusted for inflation:

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Pending home sales, Construction spending, ISM manufacturing, Saudi OSP

August 2, 2021

Same pattern:

Also same pattern of covid dip, recovery, then weakness most recently:

US Factory Growth Slows in July
The ISM Manufacturing PMI fell to 59.5 in July of 2021, the weakest in 6 months, compared to 60.6 in June and below forecasts of 60.9. New orders, production, and supplier deliveries increased less and inventories contracted. Meanwhile, employment rebounded and price pressures eased.

Looks like price hike mode?

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Total initial claims, vehicle sales

July 24, 2021

New claims still running high, as are continuing claims. Federal unemployment benefits expire in about 6 weeks:

Same pattern- covid dip, recovery, fade, continuing the weakness that traces back to the tariffs:

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Oil alert

July 6, 2021

Saudis have set in process a continuous increase in the price of oil.This is exactly what happened in 2008.The Fed’s reaction was to hike rates which only made the inflationary impact worseall triggering the financial panic and crash, with no fiscal relief from a panicked Congressrelying on the Fed until March 09.
Only a change in Saudi pricing reverses this:
SINGAPORE – Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia has raised the August official selling prices (OSPs) of all crude grades it sells to Asia, a pricing document seen by Reuters showed on Tuesday.
It set the August OSP for the flagship Arab light crude at $2.70 a barrel above the Oman/Dubai average for Asia, up 80 cents from July.
Saudi term crude supplies to Asia are priced as a differential to the Oman/Dubai average:
ASIA

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Asian PMI, trade, China services

July 6, 2021

Same pattern only more so:

Americans spending more on imports= federal deficit spending that much less inflationary:
May exports were $206.0 billion, $1.3 billion more than April exports. May imports were $277.3 billion, $3.5 billion more than April imports.

Similar pattern:

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China, construction spending, housing

July 1, 2021

Seems to showing the same pattern as the US- covid dip, recovery, fade:

Same pattern here too:

Higher prices bringing out supply?
Epic housing shortage may finally be starting to lift (cnbc.com)

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Personal income, Mortgage apps, ADP private employment, Chicago PMI

June 30, 2021

Transfers coming down is slowing GDP growth:

Housing continues to slow/ the post covid bounce is fading:

Making a comeback but still a long way to go. This is a major driver of personal income. It also shows a lot of people are taking jobs, contrary to headlines of worker shortages:

This is only through April, but note that new hires are up to about 6 million jobs per month:
Another indicator the pace of the post covid recovery is fading:

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Personal income and expenditures, lumber

June 25, 2021

Consumption leveling off at pre covid trend, as personal income growth fades with expiring fiscal support:
Fading as federal unemployment comp is being eliminated in several states. By labor day it all expires:

Still falling back:

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Housing, unemployment claims, durable goods orders, corporate profits, inventories, commodities

June 24, 2021

Another hint at a cooling housing market:

Nearly double pre covid levels indicating a lot of people are still losing jobs every week:

This chart is not adjusted for inflation. On an inflation adjusted basis it remains way below previous cycle highs:
Profits seem to have flattened again:
Inventories are growing/being restored from covid related disruptions:
This is only through April:
Covid disruption/dip followed by recovery that seems to be running its course:

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New home sales, existing home sales, crude oil

June 24, 2021

Settling back to pre-covid levels:

After cutting price to shut down the higher cost producers, particularly US shale, the Saudis have moved prices back to pre covid levels and may be going higher, particularly if they feel oil’s days are numbered…

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Bank lending

June 20, 2021

Private sector deficit spending needs to replace fading public sector deficit spending (as benefits expire) to sustain output and employment:

A small pick up here but still well below where it would have been otherwise:

Tax receipts are moving up aggressively with the recovery and further supported by ‘inflation:’

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