Monday , January 18 2021

Warren Mosler

Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

Articles by Warren Mosler

Unemployment claims, Personal income, Transfer payments, Savings, Consumption, Light vehicle sales, Consumer confidence

November 25, 2020

Still climbing. This is not good:
This is bad too:
Working it’s way lower as benefits expire and employment growth sags:

Savings added by fiscal adjustments are running down:

The economy has generated a lot less personal income than it would have generated without the covid crisis:
Same with consumption, which is about 70% of gdp:

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Retail sales, Industrial production

November 17, 2020

The lost sales are water under the bridge ascurrent sales growth has declined and leveled offas federal support for lost personal income fades:

Same pattern here- big dip, but only a partial recovery before leveling off:

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Employment, ADP, vehicle sales

November 6, 2020

Still down over 10 million jobs vs pre covid:

The Cares Act expenditures are winding down…
Private payroll recovery leveling off:
Same pattern. Collapse, partial recovery, then sideways to down:

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Personal income and consumption

November 2, 2020

Personal income, which includes gov transfer payments, is coming down in steps after spiking for the fiscal adjustments, and still remains a bit higher than it would have been as transfer payments wind down:
Transfer payments are coming down, but remain elevated largely due to unemployment:

Excluding transfer payments it’s still well short of where it was:
Real consumption, supported by transfer payments, has come back but is leveling off below pre-covid levels:

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GDP, jobless claims, pending home sales

October 29, 2020

Partial recovery but recent data shows growth stalling while a large gap (unemployment) persistsas tariffs, covid, and no additional fiscal support continue:
The gap initially closed relatively quickly, but progress has slowed:

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New home sales, Chicago Fed survey, Lumber prices, US survey

October 26, 2020

Trump looks to be losing by a substantial margin at the moment, which meansto me that there won’t be a fiscal adjustment before January’s new Congress,and without a sufficient majority in the Senate all initiatives may be blocked indefinitely.
Most likely new home sales at best return to their pre covid growth path:

Trump was upset with Canada because they weren’t charging us enough for lumber:
Lumber prices across North America have nearly tripled since 2019. Based on a weekly price report by the B.C. Ministry of Forests, Lands and Natural Resources, the price of SPF (spruce, pine, fir) 2×4 lumber – as of Sept. 18 – is at $1,288 per thousand board feet, up from a 2019 average annual of $499.

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Vehicle sales, Retail sales, Industrial production

October 16, 2020

Monthly sales rates peaked in 2016 when oil capex collapsed, then leveled off, then started sliding again with the tariffs, then collapsed with the covid shock, and have nearly recovered to the lower levels:
As with vehicles, the rate of monthly sales has recovered to prior levels, but sales lost during the dip weren’t recovered:
Industrial production has had a much weaker recovery and has turned back down:
Recovered some but still down from pre covid levels:

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Vehicle sales, real estate loans

October 5, 2020

Still very weak:

Since April, sales have increased, but are still down 4.3% from last year.
The second graph shows light vehicle sales since the BEA started keeping data in 1967.
Note: dashed line is current estimated sales rate of 16.34 million SAAR.
Sales-to-date are down 18.8% in 2020 compared to the same period in 2019.
In 2019, there were 12.70 million light vehicle sales through September. In 2020, there have been 10.31 million sales.

Real estate loan growth is headed back towards 0 from already low levels, and note that with ultra low mortgage rates for the last 10 years or so lending growth hasn’t picked back up to where it was when rates were twice as high:

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