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WARREN MOSLER

Warren Mosler

Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

Articles by Warren Mosler

Unemployment claims, port of LA, CPI, consumer sentiment

December 10, 2021

Back to pre covid levels as fewer people are being let go:

Looks to me like the increases will subside if energy prices stabilize:

Still looks to be on the decline, as federal deficit spending is quickly fading and inflation reduces the value of savings, causing people and businesses to spend less as they try to sustain a comfortable level of savings:

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Trade, Japan, fading savings

December 8, 2021

The slowdown in imports could indicate a slowing domestic economy:

Both exports and imports increased in October.
Exports are up 18% compared to October 2020; imports are up 22% compared to October 2020.

Japan not doing so well:

Personal income and savings went up with the fiscal transfers, and now they’re fading:

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Existing home sales, new home sales, durable goods orders, consumer sentiment, personal consumption and income, tax receipts

November 24, 2021

Higher prices brought out a few more sellers:

The blip up seems to have reversed:

Softening:

Looks like inventories have recovered:

These largely involve buying intentions:

Seems to be back on trend, without have ‘made up for’ the covid dip:

The rate of growth is declining and has about settled back to the pre covid trend.The higher personal savings from the extra income from fiscal spending is largelyin the form of reduced personal debt:

There’s a history of accelerating tax receipts causing recessions:

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Industrial production, retail sales

November 17, 2021

Just muddling along:

Sales dropped when covid hit, and have subsequently recovered and the total now appears to be about what it would have been without the covid interruption:

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CPI, commodity charts

November 12, 2021

Quite a few price increases, which the media now calls ‘inflation’ even though inflation is a continuous increase in the price level:
The annual inflation rate in the US surged to 6.2% in October of 2021, the highest since November of 1990 and above forecasts of 5.8%. Upward pressure was broad-based, with energy costs recording the biggest gain (30% vs 24.8% in September), namely gasoline (49.6%). Inflation also increased for shelter (3.5% vs 3.2%); food (5.3% vs 4.6%, the highest since January of 2009), namely food at home (5.4% vs 4.5%); new vehicles (9.8% vs 8.7%); used cars and trucks (26.4% percent vs 24.4%); transportation services (4.5% vs 4.4%); apparel (4.3% vs 3.4%); and medical care services (1.7% vs 0.9%). The monthly rate increased to 0.9% from 0.4% in

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Employment, US oil production

November 5, 2021

Progress, but at a decelerating rate:

The US economy added 531K jobs in October of 2021, the most in 3 months and above market forecasts of 450K as Covid-19 cases dropped and employers offered higher wages and more flexible hours. The biggest job gains occurred in leisure and hospitality (164K), in professional and business services (100K), in manufacturing (60K), and in transportation and warehousing (54K) while employment in public education declined (-65K). So far this year, monthly job growth has averaged 582K. Nonfarm employment has increased by 18.2 million since a recent trough in April 2020 but is down by 4.2 million from its pre-pandemic level. Labour shortages continue to weigh even after federal government-funded unemployment benefits have expired and schools

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ISM services, ADP, unemployment claims, trade

November 4, 2021

Good news here. The back to work story may be happening:

Same here, if it’s any indication of the Friday employment report:

This would be a good thing if the government understood it meant lower taxes or more public services. Instead, it’s simply incomes not being spent on domestic goods and services:

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Vehicle sales, commercial real estate investment, China services PMI, mortgage purchase apps

November 3, 2021

Still way down:

I like the headline but the chart not so much:

China Services PMI Rises to 3-Month High
The Caixin China General Services PMI increased to 53.8 in October 2021 from 53.4 in the prior month, pointing to the second straight month of expansion in the service sector and the steepest pace since July as COVID-19 outbreaks eased. New orders expanded the most in three months, export sales returned to growth, and employment rose for the second month in a row. Meantime, backlogs of work were unchanged following a three-month sequence of accumulation. On the cost front, input prices rose for the 16th straight month and increased at the fastest pace in three months on rising labor, and raw material costs; while output cost inflation accelerated to the quickest since

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China, Brazil manufacturing, US Construction Spending, coal

November 1, 2021

Seems a global thing:

No recovery here:

Another price reversal:
GC Newcastle coal futures tumbled by over 30% to $150 per metric ton, the lowest in three months, and are more than 40% below a record high of $269.5 hit on October 5th, as China stepped up policies to boost output ahead of the winter season. China’s average daily output increased by over 1.2 million tonnes to a record at above 11.6 million tonnes on October 18th. As a result, Chinese power plants now have stocks to produce power for 16 days from less than two days’ inventories at the start of October.

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GDP, Unemployment claims, China coal

October 28, 2021

Deficit spending as a % of GDP heading south fast:
US GDP Growth Disappoints
The American economy expanded an annualized 2% on quarter in Q3 2021, well below market forecasts of 2.7% and slowing sharply from 6.7% in Q2. It is the weakest growth of pandemic recovery as an infusion of government stimulus continued to fade and a surge in COVID-19 cases and global supply constraints weighted on consumption and production.

Gov’s saving money as claims fall:
Transitory?

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Trade, durable goods orders, iron ore

October 27, 2021

More reason for a fiscal adjustment that’s not happening:

These are new orders so the slowing isn’t about supply issues:
Lots of commodity charts looking something like this- post covid spikes fading most everywhere:

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Consumer sentiment, oil prices, federal debt/GPD

October 15, 2021

Not looking good:
Russians and Saudis now cooperating to set crude oil prices.Not good:

Post covid fiscal contraction is underway and debt/gdp is forecast to fall a lot further.Most of the Federal assistance was the likes of unemployment benefits which havenow expired and new spending programs from Congress seem to be not happening,at least any time soon. Also, higher prices mean the inflation adjusted value of theoutstanding public debt falls which is a drag on private sector spending as agents seekto sustain the value of their savings:

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Unemployment claims, employment, shipping costs, oil prices

October 8, 2021

Down a bit since Federal benefits expired. This materially cuts gov. spending:

A lot worse than expected. They thought the end of Federal benefits would send people back to work.However, a cut in Federal spending cools down aggregate demand:

Transitory comes to mind:

Saudis and Russians are working together to set price. What could go wrong???:(

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Consumer confidence, Richmond Fed, dollar index, CS house prices

September 28, 2021

Familiar pattern:

Similar pattern- covid dip, bounce, fade:

Remember all the talk about how all the money printing stuff after the crash and for covid, etc. was going to trash the $US, etc.?It’s not that easy to forecast:
This is only through July. Seems to turn down in front of recessions, but the datais from two months back so by the time you see the index turn down the recessionis probably already well underway:

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Services pmi, German survey, UK retail sales, oil, new home sales

September 24, 2021

Pretty much the whole world had a covid dip, bounce, and most recently a retreat as the economy appears to be rapidly decelerating as unemployment benefits expired and what’s left of the new fiscal spending is relatively small and keeps getting pushed out:

Crude oil is another story. There was a covid dip as the drop in demand exceeded Saudi output, which caused them to lose control of output. Now that demand has recovered they are back in control of prices, and currently they are in price hike mode:
Up a bit last month but still looking depressed historically:

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