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Personal income and spending, consumer sentiment

Summary:
Modest growth continues.The data keeps telling me the rate hikes are helping the economy rather than hurting it: This is nominal, not adjusted for inflation, and there is no evidence of rate hikes slowing anything down: Same here for inflation-adjusted consumption: Too soon to say it is turned up, but better than expected and not indicating a recession: “The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 58.6 in September of 2022 from a preliminary of 59.5, but remained above 58.2 in August and the highest in five months. Expectations were revised sharply lower (58 vs 59.9 in the preliminary estimate) while current conditions were seen better (59.7 vs58.9). Buying conditions for durables and the one-year economic outlook continued lifting

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Modest growth continues.

The data keeps telling me the rate hikes are helping the economy rather than hurting it:

Personal income and spending, consumer sentiment

This is nominal, not adjusted for inflation, and there is no evidence of rate hikes slowing anything down:

Personal income and spending, consumer sentiment

Same here for inflation-adjusted consumption:

Personal income and spending, consumer sentiment

Too soon to say it is turned up, but better than expected and not indicating a recession:

“The University of Michigan consumer sentiment for the US was revised lower to 58.6 in September of 2022 from a preliminary of 59.5, but remained above 58.2 in August and the highest in five months. Expectations were revised sharply lower (58 vs 59.9 in the preliminary estimate) while current conditions were seen better (59.7 vs58.9). Buying conditions for durables and the one-year economic outlook continued lifting from the extremely low readings earlier in the summer, but these gains were largely offset by modest declines in the long run outlook for business conditions. Meanwhile, inflation in the year ahead was seen higher (4.7% vs 4.6% in the preliminary estimate) while the five-year outlook was revised lower (2.7% vs 2.8%).” (United States Michigan Consumer Sentiment)

Personal income and spending, consumer sentiment

WARREN MOSLER
Warren Mosler is an American economist and theorist, and one of the leading voices in the field of Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). Presently, Warren resides on St. Croix, in the US Virgin Islands, where he owns and operates Valance Co., Inc.

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