In the first quarter the economy slowed down grinding nearly to a halt. Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) slowed to a 0.5% annual growth rate in the first three months of 2016, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). By the way, federal government spending has been a drag on growth. And here in lies the problem. Don't expect any stimulus this year, and very unlikely that this would change significantly any time soon. The problem isn't secular stagnation, it is rather...
Read More »Domestic reasons for Yellen to remain dovish
The last estimate of real GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2015 indicates that the economy expanded at 1.4%. Not very fast. Also, this week the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) announced that personal consumption expenditures (PCE) increased 0.1%, and revised down the January number to 0.1%. In other words, consumption is slowing down, or so it seems. More importantly, the report says: "The February PCE price index increased 1.0 percent from February a year ago. The February PCE price...
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