A lot worse than expected and still deep in contraction: Empire State Mfg SurveyHighlightsFor the seventh straight month, the Empire State report is signaling significant contraction for the manufacturing sector. The general business conditions index for February came in below low-end expectations, at minus 16.64 vs even deeper contraction of minus 19.37 in January. New orders, at minus 11.63, are in contraction for a ninth month in a row while employment, though improving to minus 0.99...
Read More »Copper, Japan, Corp tax policy
They must have found a way for their workers to live on fewer calories… Copper Miners’ Pain Doesn’t Stop Buildup Nov 23 (WSJ) —Global copper production is on track to hit an all-time high of 18.7 million metric tons this year, according to BMO Capital Markets. The cost of producing a pound of copper at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia will drop to 61 cents next year, from an estimated $1.05 cents in 2015, according to BMO. Next year, four new mines will increase the world’s copper...
Read More »Brent Spot Chart, China, Atlanta Fed
Looks a lot more negative since the October 5 Saudi price cuts than the futures markets. These price are more indicative of prices of physical oil vs financial portfolio activities:Note the lack of results of ‘monetary policy’: China’s October factory, services surveys show economy still wobbly Nov 1 (Reuters) — Activity in China’s manufacturing sector unexpectedly contracted in October for a third straight month, an official survey showed on Sunday, fuelling fears the economy may still be...
Read More »Atlanta Fed, Oil inventory, Chemical Index, Mtg Purchase Apps
Down to .8: Crude inventory that used to pile up from high cost shale production is coming down as drilling is way down and existing well output declines some 70% in its first two years. Meanwhile, US imports increase as domestic production decreases: Crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub fell by 748,000 barrels, data from the industry group, the American Petroleum Institute, showed late on Tuesday.Iraq’s southern oil exports have reached 3.10 million barrels so far this month,...
Read More »Lux GDP, Iowa, PC shipments, Lumber Prices, Oil Prices
Even Luxembourg peaked after oil prices collapsed: Ag slowdown imperils state revenue By Donnelle Eller Oct 12 (Des Moines Register) — Money coming into Iowa’s government coffers was flat the first quarter of this fiscal year, raising concern about how big an effect the slowing farm economy could have on the state budget. State revenues — income tax paid by workers and corporations, along with sales tax paid at malls, restaurants and bars, among other sources — hit $1.77...
Read More »Credit Check, Atlanta Fed, ECRI, Rail Traffic, Oil Comment
Growth rates still trending lower: Growth rate edging higher from very low levels: Back down to 1% for Q3: On October 5th Saudi price cuts were announced, as they increased discounts to various benchmark prices by substantial amounts. If the reports were accurate, the discount increases create a downward price spiral dynamic as previously described. However, since that announcement oil prices have increased approximately 10% driven by buyers reacting to various news reports...
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