Tag Archives: December 2023

AB: I am cheating and giving you the close to the last line in NDd’s report. You really should read NDd’s report in its entirety. A three minute read? “this month’s report continues to reflect a consumer economy that is doing very well.” December 2023 personal income and spending: Goldilocks is in the house UPDATED  – by New Deal democrat [Note: The St. Louis FRED site is down for maintenance, which means unfortunately there are no...

Housing construction changes little in December; but increased mortgage rates from H2 2023 have not yet been digested  – by New Deal democrat For this post, I’m going to show what the housing market looks like from most to least leading of the indicators. That shows that, although this morning’s release for housing permits and starts for December was generally positive, it is more likely that housing construction will decline rather than...

Scenes from the jobs report 2: the unemployment rate and consumption: weak, but not recessionary  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at some employment metrics from Friday’s jobs report. Today let’s look at un- (and under-) employment. Every Thursday I repeat the mantra that jobless claims lead the unemployment rate. Here are both the U3 (blue) and U6 (red) rates from Friday’s report, compared YoY: The unemployment rate is...

Initial claims: the return of “almost nobody is getting laid off”  – by New Deal democrat We’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off. Initial jobless claims for the last week of December declined -18,000 to 202,000, the lowest since October. More importantly, the 4-week average declined -4,750 to 207,750, the lowest since last January. With the usual one-week delay, continuing claims declined -31,000 to 1.855...

Real retail sales mildly positive, but still suggest further deceleration in job gains  – by New Deal democrat Before proceeding further, I should mention – and should have mentioned as to jobless claims – that we are in that part of the year where seasonality often wreaks havoc, so outsized gains or losses should be taken with a grain of salt. This is particularly true as to YoY comparisons of retail claims, because last year November and...

What is interesting about NDd’s latest is his identifying manufacturing playing “a much smaller role in the total US economy now than it used to in the decades after WW2.” He identifies another factor occurring before the start of a recession. It has become increasingly necessary for spending on services to falter as well. Real consumer spending forecasts continuing jobs deceleration  – by New Deal democrat As I’ve written many times over...

On a YoY basis manufacturing is the star of the show. But note from the historical graph that residential construction previously has turned down first, with manufacturing and other non-residential construction lagging (likely because of long lead times and the extended duration of completing projects). A big increase holds up construction spending in October; and construction spending is holding up the economy  – by New Deal democrat...