Tag Archives: Economics

Randomization — method or madness? Bill Gates has recently been promoting chicken ownership to address poverty in Africa. In an open letter, Professor Blattman of University of Chicago pointed out that cash transfers may be more cost effective than chickens said: “It would be straightforward to run a study with a few thousand people in six countries, and eight or twelve variations, to understand which combination works best, where, and with whom. To me that...

This paper critically assesses the economics of New Developmentalism (ND). It begins by identifying and formalizing the principal components of ND which are identified as neutralizing Dutch disease, ending growth with foreign saving, development driven by a technologically advanced and internationally competitive manufacturing private sector, and getting macroeconomic prices right. It then examines four strands […]

Taking the con out of RCTs Development actions and interventions (policies/programs/projects/practices) should be based on the evidence. This truism now comes with a radical proposal about the meaning of “the evidence.” In development practice, where there are hundreds of complex, sometimes rapidly changing, contexts seemingly innocuous phrases like “rely on the rigorous evidence” are taken to mean: “Ignore evidence from your context and rely in your...

Capitalist economies are demand led in the sense that both output and growth tend to reflect the behavior of autonomous demand, especially in the long run. Prices, in contrast, tend to be supply determined, reflecting cost. Supply shocks can temporarily dominate demand effects on output (for instance, as the result of war, a pandemic, or an oil shock), just as variations in demand, especially if supply is constricted, can temporarily dominate cost effects on prices. But the normal...

‘New Keynesian’ macroeconomics — worse than useless Mainstream macroeconomics can only progress if it gets rid of the DSGE albatross around its neck. It is better to do it now than to wait for another 20 years because the question is not whether but when DSGE modeling will be discarded. DSGE modeling is a story of a death foretold … Getting rid of DSGE models is critical because the hegemonic DSGE program is crowding out alternative macro methodologies...

Economics — a science in need of a paradigm shift The methodology and ideology of modern economics are built into the frameworks of educational methods, and absorbed by students without any explicit discussion. In particular, the logical positivist philosophy is a deadly poison which I ingested during my Ph.D. training at the Economics Department in Stanford in the late 1970s. It took me years and years to undo these effects … Modern economics is much like...

What is money? (II) Currently the credit theory dominates monetary theorizing and policy debate. So, policy analyses implicitly make assumptions about money as if its properties qua  money were those of a form of debt credit. Currently prominent examples include Minsky as well as proponents of Modern Money Theory (MMT). Hyman Minsky, who has been as infl uential as any money theorist in recent times, coined in passing, in a substantive piece, the familiar...

Mr. Innes’s next point is that the idea, that “in modern days a money-saving device has been introduced called credit, and that, before this device was known, all purchases were paid for in cash, in other words in coins,” is simply a popular fallacy. The use of credit, he thinks, is far older than that of cash. The numerous instances, he adduces in support of this, from very remote times are certainly interesting … Mr. Innes’s development of this thesis is of unquestionable...

Real business cycles — nonsense on stilts They try to explain business cycles solely as problems of information, such as asymmetries and imperfections in the information agents have. Those assumptions are just as arbitrary as the institutional rigidities and inertia they find objectionable in other theories of business fluctuations … I try to point out how incapable the new equilibrium business cycles models are of explaining the most obvious observed facts...

This paper reconstructs the Keynesian income – expenditure (IE) model to include distinctions between government purchases of private sector output, government production, and government job guarantee program (JGP) employment. Analytically, including those distinctions transforms the model from a single sector model into a multi-sector model. It also surfaces the logic behind the automatic stabilizer property […]