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Tag Archives: Employment

Reshoring is hype

This chart has been doing the rounds on Twitter (h/t @dbcurren). It shows manufacturing employment in the USA.  See that huge drop? That's the drain of manufacturing jobs to South East Asia.And see that uptick since 2010, that appears to be tailing off? That's the return of manufacturing jobs to the USA. What they call "reshoring".Reshoring is hype, isn't it?Related reading U.S. reshoring: over before it began? - ATKearney (pdf)

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On the Value of Work in a Social Democracy

A career and a job where one does economically and socially useful work is an important part of any successful, healthy and wealthy society. But more than this, it gives people an identity through the job that they have and a social dignity lacking in long-term unemployment.There are of course a lot of difficult, boring, dirty and sometimes dangerous jobs that have to be done, but a technologically advanced society like ours can use its inventive genius to create more and better machines and...

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More on the slow recovery

The private sector added 156,000 jobs in April, according to the Automatic Data Processing (ADP) report, ahead of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) more comprehensive release this Friday. As the graph shows there is a slowdown form last month. This adds to weak manufacturing growth,and a smaller trade deficit, resulting from lower imports, that is, a slower economy. I still think a recession might not be in the immediate horizon. However, the data seem to indicate, as I said before, that...

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Mtg purchase apps, new home sales, Payroll taxes

Down some, still depressed and going nowhere: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsPurchase applications for home mortgages fell back by 1 percent in the March 18 week, bringing down the year-on-year increase to a still very strong 25 percent, though some loss of momentum in this component is evident. Refinancing applications continued in the decline of recent weeks, dropping 5 percent in the latest week despite a 1 basis point slip to 3.93 percent in the average rate for 30-year conforming...

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Retail sales, Redbook retail sales, Housing index, Business inventories and sales, Empire manufacturing, MEW, Atlanta Fed

Just plain bad. Including last month’s downward revision. And, again, sales = income, and lower income means less to spend in the next period: Retail SalesHighlightsConsumer spending did not get off to a good start after all in 2016 as big downward revisions to January retail sales badly upstage respectable strength in February. January retail sales are now at minus 0.4 percent vs an initial gain of 0.2 percent. The two major sub-readings also show major downward revisions with ex-auto...

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Employment, Trade

Education employment was mysteriously down big last month and up big this month, so best to average the two months, which would mean about 205,000 new jobs each month, which is about where it’s been. However, in any case hours worded and average pay were both down, which means personal income and probably output is that much less, which is not good. Additionally, the downward revision in earnings for last month and the negative print this month tell me ‘the market’ is telling us there’s...

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Chicago PMI, Pending home sales, EU inflation, G20 statement, Virginia jobless claims

As previously suspected, last month’s higher print was just a bit of volatility on the way down, as per the chart: Chicago PMIHighlightsAnother month and another month of wild volatility for the Chicago PMI which lurched from solid expansion in January to noticeable contraction in February. At a headline 47.6, Chicago’s PMI has fallen outside Econoday’s consensus range for a third month in a row! Still, this report is closely watched and confirms other early indications of February...

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Philly Fed, leading indicators, jobless claims

Another bad one, and supports the possibility of another downward revision to industrial production next month: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook SurveyHighlightsThe Philly Fed report, much like Tuesday’s Empire State report, is pointing to continuing trouble for the nation’s factory sector. The general business conditions index came in at minus 2.8 to extend a long run of negative readings. New orders, at minus 5.3, have also been stuck in the minus column as have unfilled orders, at minus...

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Euro banks, Fed’s labor market index, NFIB chart

Getting more obvious it’s ‘spreading’ much like during the sub prime days, as previously discussed? European banks face major cash crunch European banks may have to pare down assets to bolster capital reserves as cheap oil is taking a toll on portfolios of energy-exposed loans. It’s slowing, whatever it is…;) Labor Market Conditions IndexHighlightsPayroll growth slowed in Friday’s employment report as did the Fed’s labor market conditions index, to plus 0.4 in January from a downward...

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Inventories, Payrolls, Trade

This is getting out of control. Sales are slowing faster than inventories are being sold.A weak print and year over year growth continues to decelerate as per the chart: Employment SituationHighlightsHeadline weakness masks an otherwise solid employment report for January. Nonfarm payrolls rose 151,000 vs expectations for 188,000. December was revised 30,000 lower to 262,000 but November was revised 28,000 higher to 280,000. Now the signs of strength as the unemployment rate fell 1 tenth to...

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