Eurostat published new data on employment in Europe. Average employment growth is +0,9%. The average hides stark differences. A Germany-centered core consisting of Germany, Austria, Sweden, Estonia, Finland, and Hungary shows declines. Surprisingly, it excludes Denmark, Belgium and the Netherlands. The South does better. Countries like Portugal, France, Greece, and, especially, Spain post above-average increases. But unemployment in these countries is still high (over 5%), even when EU...
Read More »In-depth look at the leading indicators from the employment report
– by New Deal democrat First things first: there’s almost no significant economic news at all this week until Thursday, so don’t be surprised if I play hooky for a day or two. The coincident headline news out of last Friday’s employment report was very positive, so most all observers heaved a sigh of relief. Of course, precisely *because* it is coincident, it could all be reversed next month, or by next month’s revisions to Friday’s data....
Read More »One more time: bifurcation in the jobs report, as Establishment Survey shows continued jobs growth, while Household Survey comes close to triggering the “Sahm Rule”
– by New Deal democrat AB: July 3rd, NDd mentioned he would review the comparison between the Household and the Establishment Survey Reports today. He had initially look at the comparison July 3. In the past few months, my focus has been on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing. In particular: Last month I wrote that “There is a common thread in the...
Read More »Women’s homelessness
I’ve just published Chapter 8 of my open access textbook. This new chapter focuses on women’s homelessness. An English summary of the new chapter can be found here: https://nickfalvo.ca/womens-homelessness/ A French summary of the new chapter is here: https://nickfalvo.ca/litinerance-chez-les-femmes/ All material related to the textbook can be found here: https://nickfalvo.ca/book/
Read More »Hey, Its Employment at Will!
Most state laws back the company when it comes to employment. Plus, you don’t have the cash to make a fight out of it. So move on to something better, forget them, do something great, chalk it up to experience, learn from it, and ask the right questions the next go around. Being let-go happens. Reasons could be because of the economy, job is transferred, boss does not like you, or maybe you are just to slow at acclimating to the company...
Read More »Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update
Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update – by New Deal democrat The drought in new data ends tomorrow with consumer inflation. In preparation, let’s take a look at real aggregate payrolls. These increased 0.2% in December, one of the lower readings in the past 2 years: On a YoY basis, aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls increased 5.8%, compared with consumer inflation in November, which increased 3.1%: Recall that...
Read More »Childcare Can Increase the Labor Force
This is not a bad idea. It is one issue long over due and needed if we are to attract more people into the Labor Force. It should be government sponsored to cut the costs of it. To Increase the Supply of Workers, Our Economy Needs Childcare, Roosevelt Institute, Mike Konczal Tuesday February 23, the Department of Commerce announced the CHIPS for America Funding Opportunity. This action is a part of the bipartisan CHIPS and Science Act designed...
Read More »Two “fundamental” indicators for the American middle/working class and the economy
Two “fundamental” indicators for the American middle/working class and the economy – by New Deal democrat This week is a little light on data, except for housing permits and starts (Tuesday) and existing home sales (Thursday), so let me catch up on a few other indicators. In particular, two of my favorite indicators are based on “fundamentals.” Basically, how much the average American is earning, and how much they are spending. Needless to...
Read More »Foreboding Economic Signs Coming from consumption and employment data
Some foreboding signs and portents from consumption and employment data – by New Deal democrat I have a special post up at Seeking Alpha, looking at some very troubling signs from several of the high frequency indicators I track weekly as to consumption and employment. Click over and read the whole article, but here is a little taste: the below is what the YoY% change in the 20-day total of payroll tax withholding has been in has been as of...
Read More »Theory and homelessness
I’m writing an open access e-textbook on homelessness. Chapter 2, focused on theory, has just been published. The full chapter is available here: https://nickfalvo.ca/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/Falvo-Chapter-2-Theory-and-homelessness-19aug2022.pdf A ‘top 10’ overview of the chapter can be found here: https://nickfalvo.ca/theory-and-homelessness%ef%bf%bc/ A French version of the ‘top 10’ overview can be found here: https://nickfalvo.ca/theorie-et-itinerance/...
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