Tag Archives: housing

My understanding is that this series includes premiums paid for health insurance and so GDP has gotten a one time boost from from the newly insured who are now paying insurance premiums via the affordable care act. So Q4 should see another reduction and growth and a lower contribution to GDP growth:This kind of personal consumption collapsed with the collapse in oil prices and oil capex: This is for September, and is slowing as previously discussed after permits peaked in June with the...

A weak number and Q4 not looking so good either. Domestic spending decelerating as incomes fade from reduced capex. Slowing investment, weak exports, and inventory reductions should also continue into Q4 as top line growth continues to fade. And lower prices speak to lower demand. Vehicle sales also looking to slow into Q4 as per recent vehicle loan stats and industry forecasts. GDPHighlightsSteady domestic spending helped to prop up GDP growth in the third-quarter which came in at an...

Down to .8: Crude inventory that used to pile up from high cost shale production is coming down as drilling is way down and existing well output declines some 70% in its first two years. Meanwhile, US imports increase as domestic production decreases: Crude stocks at the Cushing delivery hub fell by 748,000 barrels, data from the industry group, the American Petroleum Institute, showed late on Tuesday.Iraq’s southern oil exports have reached 3.10 million barrels so far this month,...

Higher than expected, not directly a contributor to GDP or a measure of output.The change in fed mtg regs that caused the blip and mtgs and subsequent reversalneeds to play out here as well: Existing Home SalesHighlightsExisting home sales bounced back very strongly in September, up 4.7 percent to nearly reverse the prior month’s revised decline of 5.0 percent, a decline that now looks like an outlier on a steadily rising slope. The month’s annual sales rate, at 5.55 million, is just beyond...

After the up and down in front of the change in regulations new purchase apps are, so far, lower than before: Fits with the permit spike/decline story, and there was also this note: The multi-family residential market was negative for the eighth consecutive month – and this might be indicating a slowdown for apartments – or at least less growth. Japan export growth slows sharply, raising fears of recession By Tetsushi KajimotoOct 21 (Reuters) — Japan’s annual export growth slowed for the...

The spike in permits in front of the June 15 expiration of a NY tax break is running it’s course, as permits continue to fall. Starts follow permits and will soon be tapering off as well: Housing StartsHighlightsStarts, driven by a spike in multi-family units, came in much stronger than expected in September, news offset however by a significant decline in permits. Starts jumped 6.5 percent to a 1.206 million annual rate which is just outside Econoday’s high estimate. Multi-family starts...

Builders are expecting improvement, but seems actual buyers walking in the door remains depressed: Housing Market Index Sales expectations in the next six months rose 7 points to 75, while current sales conditions rose 3 points to 70. Buyer traffic, however, didn’t move, sitting at 47— the only component still in negative territory. Regionally, on a three-month moving average, the West registered a 5-point gain to 69, and the Northeast, Midwest and South each rose 1 point to 47, 60 and 65,...

At U.S. Ports, Exports Are Coming Up Empty Oct 13 (WSJ) — In September, the Port of Long Beach Calif. handled 197,076 outbound empty boxes. September was the eighth straight month in which empty containers leaving Long Beach outnumbered those loaded with exports. Last month, however, Long Beach and the Port of Oakland both reported double-digit gains in exports of empty containers. So far this year, empties at the two ports are up more than 20% from a year earlier. Long Beach’s...

Even Luxembourg peaked after oil prices collapsed: Ag slowdown imperils state revenue By Donnelle Eller Oct 12 (Des Moines Register) — Money coming into Iowa’s government coffers was flat the first quarter of this fiscal year, raising concern about how big an effect the slowing farm economy could have on the state budget. State revenues — income tax paid by workers and corporations, along with sales tax paid at malls, restaurants and bars, among other sources — hit $1.77...

Volkswagen to Pare, Delay Capital Investments Oct 6 (WSJ) — Volkswagen AG plans to slash an €86 billion ($96 billion) investment plan and step up cost-cutting as it grapples with fallout from its emissions scandal, Chief Executive Matthias Müllersaid on Tuesday. Global Oil to Cut Spending by $130 Billion, OPEC Says Germany : Industrial Production Highlights Industrial production was weaker than expected in August. A 1.2 percent monthly fall exactly reversed an upwardly revised gain...