Tag Archives: housing

This means ‘the swamp has been drained’ and falling production has eliminated the trapped oil in Cushing that caused WTI to be at a discount to Brent. In fact, Brent should trade at a discount to WTI when the shortage is fully eliminated, reflecting transportation costs to the US. This, however, does not mean there’s any kind of national shortage or that prices will go up as unlimited imports are continuously available at then current prices, and last I saw the Saudis are still discounting...

Not so good since oil capex collapsed about a year ago: GDPHighlightsA downward revision to inventories pulled down the third revision to third-quarter GDP, coming in at an annualized and expected rate of 2.0 percent. Revised inventory growth, at $85.5 billion vs an initial $90.2 billion, was the most negative factor in the quarter, which is actually a plus of sorts as businesses held down inventories due to slowing sales, a move that should limit future disruptions in production and...

Yes, up vs last year’s dip, but remain depressed and have beenheading south since early this year: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsApplication activity was little changed in the December 11 week, up 1 percent for refinancing and down 3.0 percent for home purchases. Year-on-year, purchase applications remain very high, up 34 percent in a gain that in part reflects a pulling forward of demand ahead of what is expected to be a rate hike at today’s FOMC. Rates were little changed in the week...

One of the Fed’s mandates. The ‘headline’ number is below target due to the energy impulse, but the ‘core’ rate, led by services, is on target. The question is whether energy prices, if they remain at current levels, will ‘pull down’ other prices. And the comparisons with last year are now vs the lower numbers that were released after the oil price collapse. And not to forget that the Fed uses futures prices as indications of future spot prices, even for non perishables, which technically...

Maybe up from a year ago, but for the last several months flat to down and still at depressed levels: United States : MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsThe purchase index was little changed in the December 4 week, up 0.04 percent to an unusual second decimal place as published by the Mortgage Bankers Association. Year-on-year, however, the gain is robust with no decimals offered, at plus 29 percent. The refinance index, measured as usual with one decimal place, rose 4.0 percent in the...

More evidence the capital spending contraction is not over: CEO Confidence Goes From Bad to Worse Dec 1 (Fox Business) — CEO confidence in the U.S. economy is dwindling. The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index for the 4Q, which looks out six months, fell to the lowest level in three years For third consecutive quarter, U.S. CEOs cautious on economy Dec 1 (Reuters) — The Business Roundtable CEO Economic Outlook Index fell 6.6 points to 67.5 in the fourth quarter. The long-term...

Another bad one, reversing last month’s suspect move up: Chicago PMIHighlightsVolatility is what to expect from the Chicago PMI which, at 48.7, is back in contraction in November after surging into strong expansion at 56.2 in October. Up and down and up and down is the pattern with prior readings at 48.7 in September (the same as November) and 54.4 in August.New orders are down sharply and are back in contraction while backlog orders are in a 10th month of contraction. Production soared...

Purchase apps have been flat to down for quite a while now,and the year over year comp will be reflecting that in a few months as well: United States : MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsAfter spiking sharply in the prior when rates jumped and triggered concern they would move even higher, mortgage application volumes eased in the November 20 week as rates settled back with purchase applications down 1.0 percent and refinancing applications down 5.0 percent. However, purchase applications,...

Still negative. This is just a composite of other indexes that have been released: Chicago Fed National Activity IndexHighlightsOctober was a soft month for the economy but solidly improved from September, based on the national activity index which is at minus 0.04 vs September’s revised minus 0.29. October’s improvement is centered in the key component of employment, at plus 0.11 vs September’s minus 0.06. The gain reflects the month’s very strong 271,000 rise in nonfarm payrolls and the 1...

Falling off, as previously discussed, particularly multi family, which had been the driver: Housing StartsHighlightsPulled down by a big drop in multi-family homes, housing starts fell a steep 11.0 percent in October to a 1.060 million annualized rate that is far below Econoday’s low estimate. Starts for multi-family homes, which spiked in September following a springtime jump in permits for this component, fell back 25 percent in the month to a 338,000 annualized rate. Single-family starts...