Tag Archives: housing

Up last week now back down as this sector remains in prolonged depression: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsThe purchase index has been posting outsized gains this year but not in the January 29 week, falling 7.0 percent. The refinance index, however, did post a gain in the week, up 0.3 percent. Low interest rates have triggered strong demand for mortgage applications. The average 30-year fixed loan for conforming mortgages ($417,000 or less) fell 5 basis points and is back under 4.00...

Inching up a bit but still seriously depressed: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsWeekly mortgage applications have been very volatile so far this year but mostly to the upside. Purchase applications jumped 5.0 percent in the January 22 week with refinancing applications up 11.0 percent. Low mortgage rates are driving the activity, down 4 basis points in the week to an average 4.02 percent for 30-year conforming loans ($417,000 or less). Looks like Wards is forecasting no improvement in...

Still negative: Chicago Fed National Activity IndexHighlightsDecember was a weak month for the U.S. economy but a little less weak than November, based on the national activity index which improved to minus 0.22 from minus 0.36 (revised lower from minus 0.30). The improvement is centered in the production component as contraction in industrial production eased to minus 0.4 percent from November’s very deep minus 0.9 percent. Other components were steady with sales/orders/inventories and...

Looks to have stopped growing about 10 months ago:Remains seriously depressed: MBA Mortgage Applications

This just keeps going up, which fundamentally tends to drive up the euro which tends to continue to be subject to said upward pressure until the trade picture reverses: Euro Area Balance of TradeThe Eurozone trade surplus increased to €23.6 billion in November of 2015 compared to a €20.2 billion surplus a year earlier. Exports recorded the highest annual gain in four months and imports rebounded. Potential showdown that could drive up Spanish rates: Guindos Ditches Pledge on Spain...

Lots of up and down right now. The chart indicates purchase apps may be up a bit but still depressed historically. MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsThe new year is seeing a surge in mortgage activity reflecting a strong jobs market and low rates, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s weekly report. Purchase applications surged 18 percent in the January 8 week with refinancing applications up 24 percent. These gains, however, also reflect volatility in weekly measures and largely...

Saudi discounts for February. Some reduced, some increased, so probably more same- prices fall until Saudi output hits its capacity:Zig zagging a lot recently, now back down to where they’ve been for a while: MBA Mortgage ApplicationsHighlightsMortgage application activity fell sharply in the two weeks ended January 1, down 15 percent for home purchases and down 37 percent for refinancing. Rates were steady in the period with the average 30-year mortgage for conforming balances ($417,000 or...

Up some this week. Been bouncing around a lot with looming Fed hike, regulation changes, etc. but mtg apps and home sales remain depressed:More bad here: Durable Goods OrdersHighlightsOctober was a rare good month for the factory sector, not November where manufacturing production in the industrial production report was no better than unchanged and now new orders were also unchanged. Excluding transportation, orders dipped into the minus column though just barely at minus 0.1...

This means ‘the swamp has been drained’ and falling production has eliminated the trapped oil in Cushing that caused WTI to be at a discount to Brent. In fact, Brent should trade at a discount to WTI when the shortage is fully eliminated, reflecting transportation costs to the US. This, however, does not mean there’s any kind of national shortage or that prices will go up as unlimited imports are continuously available at then current prices, and last I saw the Saudis are still discounting...

Not so good since oil capex collapsed about a year ago: GDPHighlightsA downward revision to inventories pulled down the third revision to third-quarter GDP, coming in at an annualized and expected rate of 2.0 percent. Revised inventory growth, at $85.5 billion vs an initial $90.2 billion, was the most negative factor in the quarter, which is actually a plus of sorts as businesses held down inventories due to slowing sales, a move that should limit future disruptions in production and...