Heterodox
If you have been keeping up with New Deal democrat’s reports on the economy. He is not yet quite sold on the US slipping into recession. The Establishment Survey numbers are still positive. Numbers He believes and the numbers support his beliefs we are in a slight expansion mode. NDd also believe it is time to turn lose on the FED rates as it is in a slight expansion. Frustration of Claudia Sahm As Her Recession Indicator Triggers From the...
Read More »Why Isn’t The USA in a recession ?
Oddly I am back here posting. Even more oddly I am posting on the topic I am paid to address. I start by noting two things. About one year ago, many macroeconomic forecasters predicted that a recession would have started by now in the USA. I forget who placed the probability at 100%. In spite of sltightly disappointing 0.4% (1.6% if annualized) real GDP growth in the first quarter of 2024, we are not in a recesion. What went right ? The...
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