by Peter Dorman (originally published at Econospeak) Fifty Shades of Yellow? Post-Truth Then and Now Simon Wren-Lewis can’t take it anymore. I’ve just read his fulminations on the blatant dishonesty of right wing media outlets in the US and the UK, untethered to any residual professional attachment to standards of evidence and nakedly in the service of political ideologues. He’ll get no argument from me about that. But I think his distinction between...
Read More »What’s behind stalled nonsupervisory wage growth?
by New Deal democrat What’s behind stalled nonsupervisory wage growth? Wage growth for nonsupervisory workers nominally has been stuck in the +2.3% to +2.5% range (or worse) for three years. Why? Over the weekend I was cleaning out some old graphs, and came across this one from the Atlanta Fed, suggesting that the Phillips Curve (the tradeoff between unemployment and inflation) is very much alive, with the tweak that the amount of wage growth follows a...
Read More »Housing, production, and JOLTS all good news
by New Deal democrat Housing, production, and JOLTS all good news We’ve had a good run of economic news this week. First, in the leading housing sector, both of the most important datapoints made new highs. Single family permits, which are just as leading as permits overall, but much less volatile, made yet another post-recession high. Further, the three month rolling average of housing starts, which are more volatile and a little less leading, but...
Read More »It Takes “Alternative Math” to Claim That Redistribution Is Futile
Via Economists View (some of the comments are worth review as Deirdre McCloskey comments). Also see below Peter Dorman’s Review of Economism: Bad Economics and the Rise of Inequality by James Kwak at Econospeak. Adam M. Finkel at RegBlog: It Takes “Alternative Math” to Claim That Redistribution Is Futile: The unequal distribution of costs and benefits across society is one of the hottest topics in the regulatory arena—and one that, regretfully, has sparked...
Read More »Increased Penalties for the Uninsured Under the Republican’s AHCA?
Caroline Pearson at Avalere has a piece on how the House of Representatives AHAC healthcare program penalizes older and lower income people more so than higher incomes and younger people. Just to refresh your memory, the ACA penalizes people who do not have insurance based upon income. The penalties under the AHAC are based upon premiums and the penalties under the ACA are based upon income. Older people under the AHAC have higher premiums up to 5:1 rather...
Read More »The Budget
Via Econospeak from Sandwichman:
Read More »Should The Complacent Class Be Called The Fearful Class?
by Barkley Rosser (originally from Econospeak) Should The Complacent Class Be Called The Fearful Class? Tyler Cowen has published his most successful book yet, The Complacent Class, now on the Washington Post nonfiction bestseller list and getting reviewed by everybody from The Economist to the New York Times and on. It is the Book de Jour that all are commenting on one way or another. Is America declining because so many of its people have become...
Read More »Trumpcare Saves Social Security By Killing People!
by Barkley Rosser (originally from Econospeak) Trumpcare Saves Social Security By Killing People! Yes, there it is in black and white in footnote f on p. 33 of the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) official report on the proposed American Health Care Act, aka Trumpcare. Between now and 2026 spending by the Social Security Administration is projected to decline by $3 billion if Trumpcare passes. This is due to a projected 1 out of 830 people dying who would...
Read More »The Emerging Market Economies and the Appreciating Dollar
by Joseph Joyce The Emerging Market Economies and the Appreciating Dollar U.S. policymakers are changing gears. First, the Federal Reserve has signaled its intent to raise its policy rate several times this year. Second, some Congressional policymakers are working on a border tax plan that would adversely impact imports. Third, the White House has announced that it intends to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure projects. How all these measures affect the U.S....
Read More »Larry Summers: genius economist, failure at Psychology 101
by New Deal democrat Larry Summers: genius economist, failure at Psychology 101 One of my recurring themes is how macroeconomic theory, no matter how elegant mathematically, consistently errs because it fails to take into account basic psychology — i.e., how the human animal actually works. A big component of this failure is that humans, like other primates and apparently like just about every other social species, are hard-wired to inflict punishment on...
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