Many years ago, on family holiday in Wales, a problem arose when my father tried to turn our car and caravan around in an urban street. A man noted generally for his calmness, Dad had got out and started looking at whatever the problem was. My brother and I (ages 14 and 12) stayed in the back seat chatting away inconsequentially but, it seems, annoyingly. Suddenly, Dad’s patience broke – “GET OUT AND DO SOMETHING!” he boomed. Unaccustomed to such temper-induced imperatives, we leapt out...
Read More »Inflation and pay – Doing the wrong Something
Many years ago, on family holiday in Wales, a problem arose when my father tried to turn our car and caravan around in an urban street. A man noted generally for his calmness, Dad had got out and started looking at whatever the problem was. My brother and I (ages 14 and 12) stayed in the back seat chatting away inconsequentially but, it seems, annoyingly. Suddenly, Dad’s patience broke – “GET OUT AND DO SOMETHING!” he boomed. Unaccustomed to such temper-induced imperatives, we leapt out...
Read More »PRIME’s 2022 forecast
Each year the Financial Times invites economists to answer an economic survey for the British economy. This is PRIME’s submission. 1. UK economy Will the UK economy outpace or lag behind other developed economies in 2022 and why? UK trade performance on imports and exports has been among the worst of all OECD economies, with Brexit exacerbating the pandemic. This significant fall in total trade (compared to 2018) is an outcome, or consequence, of weak economic activity at home. Flat...
Read More »PRIME’s 2022 forecast
Policy Research in Macroeconomics (PRIME’s official name) is a company limited by guarantee, incorporated in England and Wales. It is company no. 07438334 and its registered office is at 11a Hatch Road, Pilgrims Hatch, Brentwood, Essex, CM15 9PU.We collect cookies on this website through web analytics. For more information, please read our Privacy Policy.
Read More »PRIME’s 2022 forecast
Policy Research in Macroeconomics (PRIME’s official name) is a company limited by guarantee, incorporated in England and Wales. It is company no. 07438334 and its registered office is at 11a Hatch Road, Pilgrims Hatch, Brentwood, Essex, CM15 9PU.We collect cookies on this website through web analytics. For more information, please read our Privacy Policy.
Read More »Spend for recovery & green future, raising corporation tax is ok, & there are no bond vigilantes
A couple of weeks ago, my old shower broke down, needing replacement. Chatting to bathroom-kitchen store manager, I learnt that business was brisk for them, especially the demand for new bathrooms. In fact, very brisk. Lots of people wanting new bathrooms for their holiday to-be-let homes, with higher rents in mind, as well as for actually lived-in homes. His order book is far stronger than in ‘normal’ times. For those who ‘have’, the times are not – financially speaking – bad at all. All...
Read More »Spend for recovery & green future, raising corporation tax is ok, & there are no bond vigilantes
A couple of weeks ago, my old shower broke down, needing replacement. Chatting to bathroom-kitchen store manager, I learnt that business was brisk for them, especially the demand for new bathrooms. In fact, very brisk. Lots of people wanting new bathrooms for their holiday to-be-let homes, with higher rents in mind, as well as for actually lived-in homes. His order book is far stronger than in ‘normal’ times. For those who ‘have’, the times are not – financially speaking – bad at all. All...
Read More »Spend for recovery & green future, raising corporation tax is ok, & there are no bond vigilantes
A couple of weeks ago, my old shower broke down, needing replacement. Chatting to bathroom-kitchen store manager, I learnt that business was brisk for them, especially the demand for new bathrooms. In fact, very brisk. Lots of people wanting new bathrooms for their holiday to-be-let homes, with higher rents in mind, as well as for actually lived-in homes. His order book is far stronger than in ‘normal’ times.For those who ‘have’, the times are not – financially speaking – bad at all.All this...
Read More »Spend for recovery & green future, raising corporation tax is ok, & there are no bond vigilantes
A couple of weeks ago, my old shower broke down, needing replacement. Chatting to bathroom-kitchen store manager, I learnt that business was brisk for them, especially the demand for new bathrooms. In fact, very brisk. Lots of people wanting new bathrooms for their holiday to-be-let homes, with higher rents in mind, as well as for actually lived-in homes. His order book is far stronger than in ‘normal’ times.For those who ‘have’, the times are not – financially speaking – bad at all.All this...
Read More »GDP, Brexit & the trade winds of change
In 2020, GDP per head of population fell, year on year, by a massive 10.5%. For me, that’s the take-away statistic from last Friday’s GDP-related ‘data dump’ by ONS. The level of GCDP per head (in real, inflation-adjusted terms) was £29,124. This was almost identical to the level in 2009 (£29,098), at the peak of the global financial crisis, and otherwise the lowest on record since 2003. Of course, the extent of the decline is heavily down to the government’s first lockdown...
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