Tag Archives: US EConomics

Commenter r. j. s. at MarketWatch666 Retail Sales Fell 3.0% in February After January Sales Were Revised 1.9% Higher Seasonally adjusted retail sales decreased 3.0% in February after retail sales for January were revised 1.9% higher . . . the Advance Retail Sales Report for February (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $561.7 billion during the month, which was 3.0...

 by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Both the nowcast and the short term forecast continue to be red hot. But interest rates continue to batter the long term forecast. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment, and reward me a tiny bit for the efforts I put in. ...

Larry Summer is still criticizing the American Recovery Plan.  Summers: In his latest attack on the recent rush of stimulus, Summers told David Westin on Bloomberg Television’s “Wall Street Week” that “what was kindling, is now igniting” given the recovery from Covid will stoke demand pressure at the same time as fiscal policy has been aggressively eased and the Federal Reserve has “stuck to its guns” in committing to loose monetary policy.“These...

Disappointing weekly increase in new jobless claims, but monthly trend improves; expect a 200,000+ number of new jobs in next Employment Report  – by New Deal democrat New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion is correct that, as a critical mass of those vaccinated is reached, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and...

Big (weather related) declines in February production and sales This morning (Tuesday) we got the most important single metrics for both the consumer and producer side of the economy for February, respectively, retail sales and industrial production. Both were big misses, one explicitly and the other likely due to the big freeze in Texas and neighboring States.Let’s turn to production first. Total industrial production declined by -2.2% in...

Commenter and writer RJS (Marketwatch666) reports on February Producer Prices. Producer Prices rose 0.5% in February on Higher Wholesale Food & Energy Prices The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.5% in February, as prices for finished wholesale goods were on average 1.4% higher, while margins of final services providers increased by 0.1%…that followed a January report that had the PPI 1.3% higher, with...

Chairman Powell, Secretary Yellen, and President Biden have recently spoken about the long term consequences for many of economic downturns. More should, more often. The Media should recognize how important this is; ask the question whenever it needs to be asked. The Congress should put this front and center in any and all discussions about economic policy. Why? Because millions of Americans never recovered from 1979-1980. Millions more never...

New jobless claims continue to decline, just above the pandemic low New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether my suspicion that, as a critical mass of those vaccinated is reached, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial and social activities and attendant consumer spending, leading in turn to a strong rebound in monthly employment gains...

 –by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Although rising long term interest rates are likely to have consequences in 2022, 2021 is shaping up to be a blowout year for economic (and hopefully employment) growth, driven by dual huge monetary and fiscal stimuli. As usual, clicking over and reading should bring you up to the figurative moment, and reward me...

February consumer inflation begins to heat up a little Seasonally adjusted consumer prices rose 0.4% in February. As a result, over the past several months there has been a significant uptick in YoY inflation to 1.7% from 1.1% in November.  Aside from the pandemic, for the past 40 years, recessions had happened when CPI less energy costs (red) had risen to close to or over 3%/year, usually driven by increases in the price of oil by more than...