Tag Archives: US EConomics

by Dale Coberly (Dale has been posting on AB on Social Security for over 12 years…some of his work and Bruce Webb’s can be found under our new category Social Security) Social Security Trustees Report OutCRFB Lies About It When is a not-a-lie really a lie? When the liar gives you a part of “true information” and leaves out “the whole truth” in order to lead you to a false conclusion.  Or worse, to lead you to do something that hurts you....

July personal income and spending return to normalcy. Normalcy is good How well personal income and spending held up throughout the pandemic is one of the best things about the government response. That has continued to be the case as of this morning’s report for July. Real personal income (blue) increased 0.7%, and is 4.2% above where it was in February 2020. Real personal spending (red) decreased -0.1%, but is still 2.7% above its...

Initial and continuing jobless claims: the good news continues The good news for both initial and continued claims continued this week. Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 353,000 from last week’s pandemic low. The 4 week average of claims declined by 11,500 to 366,500, another new pandemic low: Significant progress in the decline of initial claims had stalled for the last 2 months, but that has ended.The story is the same for...

July new home sales down nearly 30% from peak, as prices perhaps start to plateau Unlike yesterday’s existing home sales, today’s report on new home sales is much more economically significant. The reason I prefer single-family housing permits as a measure is that the sales data is extremely volatile, and heavily revised over the next several months. But with those caveats, let’s take a look.New home sales (blue in the graph below) increased 1%...

A note on existing home sales Existing home sales are the least noteworthy of the housing data, because of the very limited economic activity moving into or out of an existing home provokes compared with the construction, furnishing, and landscaping of a new home. But it’s worth a brief look, so let’s note this month’s report. Existing home sales (blue in the graph below) are only up 1.7% compared with one year ago, as opposed to new...

Retail Sales Fell 1.1% in July After May and June Sales were Revised Higher, R.J.S, MarketWatch 666 Seasonally adjusted retail sales were 1.1% lower in July after retail sales for May and June were revised higher . . . the Advance Retail Sales Report for July (pdf) from the Census Bureau estimated that our seasonally adjusted retail and food services sales totaled $617.7 billion during the month, which was 1.1 percent (± 0.5 percent) less than...

Economist-Farmer Michael Smith gives us a view of how serious the drought conditions are and the impact on the nations agriculture. Post after post of hydraulic shovels pulling orchards up in California, news of the large almond producers having to cull hundreds of acres at a time to divert water and resources to other parts of their farms. We saw the Midwest run hot and dry all summer and when harvest season arrived, monsoon rains made harvest...

Initial claims: simply, good news The bottom line for both initial and continued claims this week is simple: unadulterated, absolute good news. Initial jobless claims declined 29,000 to 348,000, 20,000 below their previous pandemic low. The 4 week average of claims declined by 19,000 to 377,750, 6,750 below its previous pandemic low of 384,500: Significant progress in the decline of initial claims had stalled for the last 2 months, but...

July housing permits and starts: yellow flag for economy in 2022 Last month I noted that, from here on, the comparisons with 2020 in housing would become much more challenging. And so they have. While permits (gold in the graph below) did increase this month, their declining trend remains intact. Starts (blue), and more importantly, single-family permits (red, right scale) – the least volatile measure of all – both decreased again, as they...

A lot more intense economic commentary and detail coming by way of blogger and commenter R.J.S. MarketWatch 666 CPI Rose 0.5% in July on Higher Prices for Food, Energy, New Vehicles and Lodging The consumer price index rose 0.5% in July, as higher prices for food, energy, new vehicles, and lodging at hotels and motels and were only slightly offset by lower prices for car and truck rentals, vehicle insurance and health insurance . . ....