Tag Archives: US/Global Economics

by Barkley Rosser  (originally published at Econospeak) Saint Janet Yellen: The Best Fed Chair Ever? OK, so the immediate reaction of many to this title might be to laugh, but I challenge anybody reading this to name another Fed Chair who was clearly better than she is.  I do not think you can.  However, one reason why one may not think much about her is that things have been so inconsequential since she has been Chair.  Nothing much has happened.  She...

A little Ella Fitzgerald for you today. Kind of fits with what is going on in the US today. [embedded content] Over at Vox, Matt Yglesias has an interesting article on the Trump Transition Team ordering government economists to cook up rosy economic forecasts. With his far reaching economic “it will be great” promises during the election, delusional Trump has laid out a “blue skies” future which is likely unobtainable with the past economic growth of less...

by New Deal democrat The shallow industrial recession is fading in the rear view mirror A year ago the “shallow industrial recession” induced by the strong US$ and imploding oil patch was bottoming.  At that time I described the historical pattern: Typically new orders turn positive first (red, left scale in the graph below), followed by sales (green, right scale), and finally inventories (blue, right scale): At that time I concluded: If this is an incipient...

by New Deal democrat Industrial production: We’re DOOO …. oh, wait, it’s the global warming hoax At first blush yesterday’s negative industrial production print gives the lie to the proposition that the economy has left last year’s “shallow industrial recession” behind, as it looks to be going mainly sideways: But a closer examination shows that is not the case.  Industrial production is broken up into three groupings: manufacturing (by far the biggest),...

by Sandwichman Recall and the General Strike The tradition of the oppressed teaches us that the “emergency situation” in which we live is the rule. — Walter Benjamin, On the Concept of History, 1940 Back in December, I posted Full Employment and the Myth of the General Strike to start the conversational ball rolling about the idea of a general strike. It was the middle post in a three-part series on full employment. Events move fast in 2017. In the past two...

by Peter Dorman    (published originally at Econospeak) Why You Should Never Use a Supply and Demand Diagram for Labor Markets You would know this if you read your Cahuc, Carcillo and Zylberberg, but you probably won’t, so read this instead. A standard S&D diagram for the labor market might look like this: It’s common to use W (wage) on the price axis and N (number of workers) on the quantity axis.  Equilibrium is supposed to occur at the W where...

by New Deal democrat Bad news: real nonsupervisory wages have actually DECLINED over the last year This morning’s inflation news was even worse than I expected based on the increase in gas prices. On a monthly basis prices rose +0.6%. Core prices rose +0.3%. More importantly, YoY CPI was up +2.5%.  Core YoY CPI was up+2.3%: This means real nonsupervisory wages are now actually *down* -0.1% YoY for the last year. Here is the actual level of real...

by Barkley Rosser  (originally published at Econospeak) Trump And The Fed It may be way too soon to say anything sensible about what Trump thinks about the Fed or will do  about it, but as the first person to have publicly called for appointing Janet Yellen as Chair (back in 2009), I figure I am more situated to stick my neck out to say something, especially when it looks like what is coming is a big contradictory mess.For the moment the Fed seems to be...

by New Deal democrat A thought for Sunday: No, Trump isn’t imploding — but the opposition is broad and intense My post from two weeks ago, “No, Trump isn’t Imploding” got picked up by a few other sites within the past few days, and I wanted to follow up because we have a fuller picture of public opinion now. Basically, Trump still isn’t imploding. He is holding his base. In fact, there is a little economic evidence that they are putting their wallets where...

by Barkley Rosser                (originally published at Econospeak) The Scale Of Trump’s Yemen Botch It is  becoming clear that the scale of the botch by Donald Trump in Yemen in his first effort at a foreign military action is much greater than .first reported, as reported by Juan Cole.   Right from the start we heard that people in the military were complaining about poor vetting of intel and how there was more military resistance than expected, with one...