Tag Archives: weekly indicators

 Weekly Indicators for April 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Several important short leading indicators rallied this week. In particular, the stock market seems to think the worst is over (for the moment!). At the same time, several important coincident indicators of taxation and employment are on the cusp of rolling over again. As usual, clicking over and reading will...

Weekly Indicators for April 17 – 21 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There’s more *extremely* slow deterioration in some coincident indicators of recession, but at the same time, the downturn has been telegraphed for so long that some leading indicators are on the verge of turning bullish again. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment on all of...

Weekly Indicators for April 10 -14 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My ‘Weekly Indicators’ post is up at Seeking Alpha. The slow drip-drip-drip of deceleration generally continues. Perhaps most significantly, YoY consumer spending as measured by Redbook sank to a new post-pandemic lockdown low of only +1.5%. But other coincident indicators in particular, like tax withholding, appear resilient. As usual, clicking over and reading...

Weekly Indicators for April 3 – 7 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha.  Probably unsurprisingly, the big news this week was the effect of the revisions to the initial jobless claims data, and also the turning down of several sectors in the monthly jobs report. Anyway, as usual clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual moment as to the data, and reward me a little bit...

Weekly Indicators for March 27 – 31 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I keep forgetting to put up this link on Saturdays, but you know where to find it: my Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The good thing about high frequency indicators is you can see what is happening with trends much more quickly than with monthly releases. The bad thing is that the drip-drip-drip can take forever! Anyway, the fallout from SVB...

Weekly Indicators for March 20 – 24 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat I’ve neglected to put this up for the past several weeks, but by now you know where to find my latest Weekly Indicator post at Seeking Alpha. Probably unsurprisingly, in the week after the Silicon Valley Bank failure, just about every financial stress indicators suddenly spiked. In other words, credit conditions, which had already tightened by the end of last year,...

Weekly Indicators for February 20 – 24 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While several of the important coincident indicators continue to hover just above neutrality, importantly neither long term Treasury yields nor corporate bond yields nor mortgage rates have made a new high in the past 4 months, and historically that has been significant. As usual, clicking over and reading will...

Weekly Indicators for February 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha I neglected to post the link to this yesterday, so let me do it today. My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. We continue to see a slow drip, drip, drip of ever so slightly more negative coincident data, without it crossing over into firm recessionary territory. I have a feeling I know what the crucial reason why is, and that metric will be updated this coming week (that’s...

 – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is also up at Seeking Alpha. The volatile coincident consumer numbers bounced higher this week, while another recession indicating system flashed red, suggesting a recession is most likely to start during the 2nd Quarter of 2023. As usual, clicking over and reading my commentary at Seeking Alpha will not only bring you up to the virtual moment as to the economy, but it will bring me a little...

Weekly Indicators for December 19 – 23 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Coincident indicators continue to ever so microscopically worsen – but not yet in recession territory; while there is an increasing suggestion from the long leading indicators that a recession could be relatively short. Provided, of course, that the Fed takes the hint. As usual, clicking over and reading will bring you up to the virtual...