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[72] Insolvency Crisis in Ukraine & Cullen Roche: US is “muddling through”

Summary:
Our lead story: Ukraine faces a potential default and needs money. But where will it get the money from? The IMF? EU? Russia? The acting Ukrainian president Olkesander Turchinov says that Ukraine would need billion dollars over the next two years, or the economy would head “into the abyss.” That means default and depression. ...

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Our lead story: Ukraine faces a potential default and needs money. But where will it get the money from? The IMF? EU? Russia? The acting Ukrainian president Olkesander Turchinov says that Ukraine would need $35 billion dollars over the next two years, or the economy would head “into the abyss.” That means default and depression. In the past, Ukraine has received aid both from Russia and the IMF. Erin looks at the Ukrainian government’s situation and examines the impact on emerging markets.


Our guest for today is Cullen Roche, the head of Orcam Financial Group and founder of noted finance blog “Pragmatic Capitalism.” Roche pushes back against the idea that if the Fed eased monetary policy sooner, we would have avoided the Great Financial Crisis. He argues that the primary cause of the crisis was a debt buildup that Wall Street subsequently leveraged on. Once housing prices started the fall, the whole house of cards fell. Since this was a balance sheet problem, Roche doesn’t see what more the Fed could have done.


In the second part of our interview, Roche gives his thoughts about whether or not the downward revision in US GDP growth in the fourth quarter of 2013 means a slower path going forward. He calls the current US situation a muddle-through environment, and he believes this is likely to continue. He also gives his thoughts on what effect emerging markets have on the US recovery.


For our Big Deal, Erin and Edward Harrison talk about how owning property has become a “sick joke” in Greece. Although housing prices have tanked, sales have remained sluggish. Harrison analyses the situation and discusses some of the economic obstacles facing Greece today.



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Cullen Roche
Former mail delivery boy turned multi-asset investment manager, author, Ironman & chicken farmer. Probably should have stayed with mail delivery....

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