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Bank stocks are trading like it's another GFC yet the losses to bank capital in the GFC were 6 times greater, not to mention current fiscal support being twice as strong. Makes no sense. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.mmteconomics.com/ Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Mike Norman Economics: https://www.pitbulleconomics.com Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement video course. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/understanding-daily-treasury-statement-video-course/?s2-ssl=yes
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Bank stocks are trading like it's another GFC yet the losses to bank capital in the GFC were 6 times greater, not to mention current fiscal support being twice as strong. Makes no sense. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.mmteconomics.com/ Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Mike Norman Economics: https://www.pitbulleconomics.com Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement video course. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/understanding-daily-treasury-statement-video-course/?s2-ssl=yes
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| Bank stocks are trading like it's another GFC yet the losses to bank capital in the GFC were 6 times greater, not to mention current fiscal support being twice as strong. Makes no sense. Trade and invest using the concepts of MMT. Get a 30-day free trial to MMT Trader. https://www.mmteconomics.com/ Mike Norman Twitter https://twitter.com/mikenorman Mike Norman Economics: https://www.pitbulleconomics.com Understanding the Daily Treasury Statement video course. https://www.pitbulleconomics.com/understanding-daily-treasury-statement-video-course/?s2-ssl=yes |
My theory, the FED and Banks have been cooking the books and the market knows it. That 1.8 pct drop might be headed for 20 pct.
no, people listen to a podcast, no research, listen, consume, react, spreads…modern life in the herd. Make sure your on fringe of herd…buy houses when the herd sells…always works….the herd clicks clickbait…the herd says….so and so said this….seems to me some of these stocks are good buys if you have capital and can walk away and wait for sanity…..then sell it back to the herd when they turn.
Your right when you say its media driven. Like politics, you can drum up fear, hate, infactuation for anything and it spreads. "Feelings" ARE more important than facts it seems. However, like always…if you can keep your head, when all around are losing theirs……opportunity knocks constantly
No-one wants to look at the elephant in the room. Those first-domino banks were Davos banks, over levered (SVB 185:1) to produce offshore euro dollars. They were basically rehypothecating dollars, so the Fed just crushed them.
The bigger boys, though under some stress as you describe, will survive without issue.
This is an economic war between the Davos Euro Oligarchs and the USA.
Until people take off their gloves, get dirty, push their political biases to one side, and start to examine this, the entire situation will remain confusing.
People have lost trust not only in the banks, but the Central Banks as well. It's a zero reserve system, they think that if there's a run on a bank, the banks can't cover it and will have to rely on the Fed, which except for the Too Big to Fail banks are not sure will be there for all banks going forward. Uncertainty equates to risk. People are worried that they might not get their money back.
You’d never see Buffett own a bank like SVB because of the shady deals they made.
I don’t see him rushing to sell the bank stock he owns ($BAC, $C, $BK).
I wouldn’t be surprised to see he bought more in the next quarterly filing.
There is mass hysteria created by media
It's a great buying opportunity in bank stocks
Mike, have you studied stress tests on banks ?
Mike… you can give statistics, data, thoughts, and whatever else you can but the market is driven by 2 things only. Greed and fear. Fear… is high.
I also believe crypto has something to do with it as well. Not sure how much money is stuck in crypto land.
Vix curve backwardating…doesn't look too bad now!
Mike I think I might have a hunch to what the piece of the puzzle you're missing. Something a lot of people have been putting on blinders to for the past 2 years. But idk I might be wrong. Edit: I was hesitate to throw it out there, but perhaps ISDA phase 6 is really bringing the hammer down on these banks. And there might be a couple other players involved, notably shorts who have gone in and really screwed up these banks.
Hey mike – LONG TIME follower of you, Mosler, Mitchell going back to 2008 and before. I hear you. I suspect that one factor you're not considering is a larger play of bank consolidation. I agree there is a large factor of this that is media driven and not adding up exactly. I think the big banks (Chase, Wells, Citi, etc.) want to buy these growing regional sized banks like First Republic, Signature, etc. So if you can crash a bank reputation in the media and get a bank run going then you can come in and bail them out and eventually own or control them – which is what the big banks are doing via back channel lending with the Fed. Add a bunch of fear thanks to the media that the smaller banks will lose all your money and these bigger banks ARE seeing a HUGE increase in depositors to them from smaller banks. So it's about acquisition of growing regional banks and consolidating / eliminating competition and they're using the media and the government to leverage them and their customers towards the bigger banks again. It's corporate banking politics basically. And the big banks are using the weight of the Fed and government and media to take out the growing banks which have been taking some of their market share and growing. What do you think? Thanks again for all you do and God bless.
I like CMA
Mike it’s obvious that Central banks are purposely destroying regional banks while their crony regulators are simultaneously going after crypto. Their plan is obvious. Central bank CBDC loaned directly to the consumer. No decentralized crypto. Only theirs. And Regional (later the bigs) aren’t needed and will be imploded. Wake up and smell the thermite.
Danielle DiMartino Booth just wrote a free article about regional banks on her Substack blog: "Too small to not fail". They have ship loads of mortgage, auto and CRE debt. She does not understand mmt though.
Regional banks still have worthless bonds from 2008 on their books, and according to FASB FAS157 level 3 illiquid assets can be valued at whatever asset value the bank deems appropriate. This Toxic waste remains at the ticking time bomb when the gangster bank CEO's and head hunter pay package competition team up to pay short term high pay with no regard to a properly managed bank. IE instead of looting the available pay for all workers at the bank the upper execs. rip off share holders. See MTB ang GBCI regional banks stomp the shit out of all banks over many years. Correlation with these two CEO's (lowest paid ) compared to ALL OTHER banks! Responsible CEO's, Warren Buffett mentality types plow the total pay packages for these banks back to lower workers. Greed leads to fraud and the share holders and bond holders get screwed and large depositers get ensnared. Gordon Geiko of movie "Wall Street", Greed in Good? NO I like the "Big Short" " It's not that fraud is good or bad, it just doen't work". Question for Mike, Any way to verify the story that top executives of SVB took out 150 million dollars in loans hours before bank collapse?
Why does MTB and GBCI banks thrive and outperform returns to share and bond holders versus ALL OTHER BANKS? CEO's of these two banks manage the pay scale to reward bank workers versus short term loot the bank for high pay packages and short term gains versus responsible management.
@6:00 If i lost 1000 because of someone elses actions then yes… i would pull all my money from the bank. I pull money from the banks that charge me fees to "manage" my checking account. I do not trust banks, bankers, or investment advisors. They would never tell you to get your money of their bank at the risk of being branded a fear monger and fired.
Right wing conspiracysts say this is a ruse to introduce CBDCs. And to kill crypto.
I think the “missing puzzle piece” isn’t missing in your analysis at all, you’ve spelled it out: there’s a conspiracy going on to use bureaucratic pronouncements & media to manufacture panic in order to benefit a few players. This is something that happens in all areas (see the past years of coofid hysteria), but people who are scared to be attacked & smeared for this view often eliminate it from the outset which makes their analysis lacking.