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Budget surplus accelerating. Bad news for economy and stock market.

Summary:
Federal gov't is now running an bln surplus for January, sucking income and savings from the economy.

Topics:
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Federal gov't is now running an $18 bln surplus for January, sucking income and savings from the economy.
Mike Norman
Mike Norman is an economist and veteran trader whose career has spanned over 30 years on Wall Street. He is a former member and trader on the CME, NYMEX, COMEX and NYFE and he managed money for one of the largest hedge funds and ran a prop trading desk for Credit Suisse.

30 comments

  1. Thanks again! I wonder if the excess tax collection has anything to do with the crypto boom last year and maybe its just an anomaly that'll go away after tax season

  2. Budget deadline Feb 18, spending limited to past year level. Fed is selling oil from strategic reserve may have contributed to surplus.

  3. Thanks, Mike!🥰

  4. American Exploring

    Here we go again. Predicting where the market is heading is not a good thing.

  5. If the Government was running a surplus shouldn't we see the debt clock reverse? on the time machine of the debt clock if you go to 2000 u can see it reversing but right now its still going up

    • @ukulayme2 Even during Clinton "surpluses' the national debt rose every year. Might it be suggested to consider the rate of change more than absolute debt to the penny as an indicator of future economic "growth".

    • What makes you think the debt clock is an accurate display of real time data? The purpose of the debt clock is to scare people, this doesn’t require real time data.

      Why does the time machine for 2000 show the debt reversing? The values are hardcoded. Set debt to N dollars, increment by X dollars every Y milliseconds, X could be a positive or negative number. You download the starting variables and it's a loop that runs locally on javascript.

    • The debt clock isn't real. It's code that runs a script that is displaying a number counting in real time based on the average amount of debt being added over a period of time.

      It is not monitoring the accounts of the treasury and going up or down based on that, which is what Mike is talking about. The information he reports comes from the daily treasury report.

    • @ennuiband but in 2000 the government ran a surplus and on the debt clock in 2000 it's reversing as it would today if we were running a surplus then if you go to 2016 the debt clock is going up faster than it is now.

    • @trent jenkins all you are saying is that the debt clock animates historical data

  6. They'll change fiscal policy hopefully as they see the economy drop. That Democrat Turncoat will block spending on things worthwhile, but will love tax cuts I imagine. Hopefully the tax cuts don't just go to the rich

  7. Putin is taking opportunity to get written agreement from Ukraine not to join NATO … while Biden is the POTUS. I spoke to Ukrainian and things she heard from non-US media is not that bad

  8. We're all gonna be dead anyway lool love ya Mike – your comment is true whether or not war commences…very philosophical of you Mikey.

  9. I need the market to fall hard and a lot!!! So when I put my buys they go instantly to big profit 😁

  10. This is bidens plan for Russia to stimulate the economy. https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=ETNSVEumyJk

  11. I've been watching Mike for about 2.5 years. He's right about short term market trends about 90% of the time. He's is giving guidance on general market trends. This is important for range traders like myself. It's up to the listener to apply this info to their own financial context.

  12. titaniumsandwedge

    How is it possible for a progressive government run a budget surplus? Probably just one month's data.

  13. Senator Tuberville bought a bunch of put options on the market around December, he also sold much tech stocks during that time too. These congress critters know about MMT and knew the govt was bout to run a surplus.

  14. Excellent video

  15. Great MMT Report today Mike! Love your work!

  16. បេះដូង

    This is exactly what Michael Burry predicted a year ago. Cyptos are crashing, the big tech and Tesla are crashing, bringing down the entire market S&P and Nasdaq, inflation is going through the roof. Finally, Mike woke up to reality,

  17. I only listen to you. Thanks for sharing your knowledge with us.

  18. hi mike, isn't it in your view enough, wenn credit creation and overall money aggregate m2 continues to rise, although the government might suck out some money, the money creation via credit is still strong, isnt it?

  19. GDP just smashed through expectations. Tax cuts and expenditure would increase inflation.

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