by Summary:
Still have to watch net government transfers. If they keep falling, economic growth may go flat. 
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Mike Norman considers the following as important:
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Still have to watch net government transfers. If they keep falling, economic growth may go flat. 
Topics:
Mike Norman considers the following as important:
This could be interesting, too:
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| Still have to watch net government transfers. If they keep falling, economic growth may go flat.  |
Great job as always Mike!
Thank you Mike!! I appreciate what you do!
No curtains? 🧐😂
GDPNow down to 1.7% now
Thanks Mike!
ANG Traders does.
GDP seems like a useless metric
If government spending is strong GDP will increase. If GDP increases the value of US stocks will also increase.
%S&P increase should = %GDP increase which should = %Net govt transfer increase.
When these don’t align start with the fiscal flows and work back to see where the correction will manifest.
That’s the simplest explanation.
@mean2anend why do economists make such a fuss about Debt to GDP ratio if they want low debt but high GDP?
It’s a hang over from the gold standard days when too much debt would lead to inflation as a direct metric.
Your analysis is sophisticated and parsimonious, Mike. Not simple. Complex and sophisticated understanding allows you to use heuristics to cut through the noise to see the signal.
I also think that inflation has been feeding the stock market figures – higher prices (at least nominally) mean that all the numbers must rise. And inflation is partly fed by higher interest rates too. It's worrying that Europe, Australia and the new government (in waiting) in the UK are all talking austerity.
The government budgets for the interest on the debt each year as it comes due. Why don't they also budget for the principal payments as they come due? When I take out a loan, the loan is the principal that has to be paid back. The interest is extra. Doesn't the budget prove that the government isn't really borrowing money and spending it? They are simply rewarding bond holders for not spending money. It proves MMT.
The interest on the “debt” IS the only thing due. The bonds themselves are issued for USD.
@@mean2anend They supposedly sell the bonds so they can take that money and pay for deficit spending. That's the money they are borrowing and has to be paid back. Bonds are always being cashed in and that principal comes due. It's the national debt. At least that's the story we are told.
The truth is that they are not paying it back because they never spent it. There is no borrowing. Pointing out this in the budget proves MMT correct.
Most of the bonds sold, say to China, are in exchange for goods. Instead of USD when we buy things the Chinese would rather have bonds with a coupon. The bonds themselves are paid for in USD. There’s no debt there.
When banks buy securities at auction the same is true. They buy bonds with USD, again no debt. The only “debt” is the interest due.
It’s actually to our benefit when banks and nations hold our “debt” as its an investment and show of faith in the currency.
The days of selling bonds to cover debt or as deficit spending for the federal government are long gone. It’s a securities market now.
@mean2anend All binds are sold in U.S. Dollars
Is there a way to see the expansion in private credit? Is the St Louis Fed's "Bank Credit – All Commercial Banks" the best resource available?
👁❤
https://youtube.com/shorts/trwSAR0eZyU?si=P7NzLupfsydjnQHB. About situation on markets 😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Is this noise or is it a prediction for market behavior? Seems like all continues to climb up. Bullish until it’s not